Iran and Central Asian Countries: New Partners in Iranian Policy (part 2)

The revolutionary rhetoric and practices corresponding to the “second stage of the Islamic Revolution” proclaimed by IRI leaders two decades ago have in some cases proved unproductive in building Tehran’s bilateral relations with a number of Muslim states. This includes post-Soviet Central Asia.

Iran in Post-Soviet Central Asia (part 1)

Iran has been an active player in Central Asia for more than three decades, arguing for its special role in the development of the post-Soviet states of this sub-region — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. For Iran, the existence of ties with Central Asian states is a continuation of centuries-old traditions of historical and cultural relations interrupted during the Soviet era.

Complex Equation: Positions of Central Asian States and Societies in the Gaza Conflict

Israel is perceived as an important part of the Western, American-centric world. Consequently, relations with Israel are seen as a component of an intricate set of strategies in the multi-vector foreign policy of Central Asian governments. This policy aims to maintain a delicate balance, primarily in the triangle of relations among the three key powers in Eurasia: China, Russia and the West.

Balancing Policy: Official Positions of the Central Asian States on the Gaza War

The countries of Central Asia cooperate closely with Israel, primarily in the economic sphere. Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, all Central Asian countries issued statements expressing “concern” about the escalation around the Gaza Strip. At the United Nations, the Central Asian countries, albeit cautiously, joined the majority that did not support Israel. On December 12, Central Asian countries (except Turkmenistan yet again) supported a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip for humanitarian purposes. Israel's representative at the UN deemed this resolution hypocritical as it did not mention the Hamas attack on Israel.

Intensification of French Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus and Central Asia: Israeli Perspective

After the Second Karabakh War (2020) and especially after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine (2022), France saw a number of new diplomatic opportunities opening up for it in the southern post-Soviet space as Russia's traditional influence waned.

The Hamas Attack on Israel and the Wave of Antisemitism in the South Caucasus and Central Asia

The Hamas attack on Israel triggered a wave of antisemitism in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The root causes of this surge are similar: anti-Israeli propaganda in Russia (which is anti-liberal and anti-Western in nature) and in the Islamic world (usually of a specifically religious nature), as well as in the West (typically taking on an extreme leftist nature).

How Russia Tries to Use the Central Asian States After the Invasion of Ukraine

For a significant period, Russian policy in Central Asia has differed from its approach toward Ukrainian or Georgian issues. It was characterized by fewer elements of ideology and greater pragmatism. Pragmatic elements that "softened" Russian foreign policy in the Central Asian direction persisted until 2021, owing to various factors. Russian officials, to some extent, recognized the multi-vector foreign policies of Central Asian countries, leading to a more accommodating stance toward the region. Central Asia was perceived as having limited prospects for NATO and EU expansion, partly due to the presence of authoritarian regimes and its geographical distance from Europe. This made Moscow's influence appear less threatened compared to regions like Ukraine. Global strategic considerations compelled Putin to acquiesce both Chinese and Turkish influences in Central Asia. Putin's personal limited interest in Central Asian affairs and the influence of regional leaders on Russian decision-makers sometimes fostered an atmosphere of pluralism. Russia shared a common enemy in the form of radical Islam with both the West and secular regimes in Muslim countries.

Attempt to Capitalize on Neutrality: How Central Asian States Shape their Policies on Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Common trends in Russia's relations with Central Asian countries during the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Russia, China, and the Prospect of US Military Bases in Central Asia

Following the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, Washington is allegedly trying to reestablish a military presence in Central Asia, similar to what it did in the early 2000s. Though some level of cooperation is possible with Russia within the framework of great power relations (and much still depends on Moscow’s goodwill), China opposes any American military or security expansion near its restive Xinjiang province.

China and Russia: A New Vision for Central Asia

Emil Avdaliani
July 7, 2021
Paper No. 2090

The Kremlin's fixation on competing with the West might cost Russia dearly, as its clout in Central Asia is under strain from a rising China. Moscow will try to mitigate the tilting balance of power by applying methods of the post-liberal world order to the region. China and Russia might reach a condominium in which issues of economy and security are subdivided between them.

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