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The North Korean Air Force has installed AWACS/AEW platforms on several Russian transport aircraft. If the installation is based on the Chinese KJ2000, there is a good chance that Israeli know-how has reached the North Koreans indirectly.
Hamas seeks to end the war while maintaining its military control over Gaza, mirroring Hezbollahโs pre-war dominance in Lebanon. Israel must not allow this to happen, even if Egypt pushes for it.
The PSCRP reports in February 2025, have covered the recent political developments in Central Asia, South Caucasus, and Russia. The PSCR program at the BESA Center is further continuing its mission of analyzing the most important sociopolitical developments in the post-Soviet region.
- Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai
- Paper No. 2335
The IDFโs current mechanism for determining and providing intelligence assessments rigidifies the thinking of intelligence analysts, and increases the risk that they will not recognize changes in the behavioral patterns of the adversary that affect the predictive ability and relevance of the forecast. Providing assessments should be the beginning of the process, not the end. A structured, open, and ongoing discussion of an assessment can make both the process and the product more dynamic in the face of changing conditions.
- Vladimir (Zeโev) Khanin
- Paper No. 2334
Azerbaijan, a Shia Muslim-majority country, has the longest-standing and most comprehensive partnership with Israel. Azerbaijan is the only strategic partner in the Muslim world of the USโs main ally in the Middle East. It shares borders with both Iran and Russia, and may thus be considered one of the pillars of Israelโs regional strategic security architecture. Against the backdrop of the Trump administrationโs efforts to reshape the global order, Azerbaijanโs significanceโfor both American and Israeli strategic interestsโhas grown even further. This is driven by key trends in Washingtonโs new foreign policy approach, within which Azerbaijanโs advantages and capabilities can be effectively leveraged.
- Dr. Nir Levitan
- Paper No. 2322
The German Navy is facing new challenges in the Middle East ranging from arms smuggling to air defense. These challenges are developing in the context of increasing escalation in Europe, particularly in the Baltic Sea and in Northern Europe.
- Col (Res.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen
- Paper No. 2332
President Donald Trump's controversial initiative to relocate the Palestinian population from the Gaza Strip, primarily to Egypt and Jordan, is causing a stir in the Arab world. While the strong public resistance to the idea expressed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah seems to negate the possibility that the president's initiative can be implemented, President Trump insists that his plan is achievable and that Egypt and Jordan will eventually cooperate. His resettlement idea, viewed in todayโs political environment as anathema, has a series of historical precedents.
- Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal
- Paper No. 2231
Israelโs original defense strategy strove to maximize wartime operational decisiveness as compensation for inferior resilience. In recent decades, anti-terror tactics have taken over our strategic thinking, pushing this principle aside. The current war is a crossroads. The October 7 attack can be seen as a localized failure, and the strategy of focusing on Hezbollah and Hamas can be continued. This would mean establishing buffer zones, which would lead to protracted guerrilla warfare and further weaken Israel. But there is another way to perceive the Iron Swords War: as the first campaign in a historic war against the Shiite axis. According to this view, this war is a defensive phase. As such, it has served its purpose. Its achievements are to be exploited for a major regrouping and the building of a renewed operational-level decisive capability to prepare us for the next phase of the broader war.
- Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai
- Paper No. 2230
Israel began the Iron Swords War on October 7, 2023, on a โYom Kippur Warโ dynamic: the devastating assault on Israel conducted that morning by Hamas was a strategic and operational surprise that collapsed the defense of the Gaza envelope and with it, the foundations of Israel's national security. The war ended on January 17, 2025, on a โSix-Day Warโ dynamic: a fundamental positive change had occurred on all of Israel's main combat fronts. How did this happen? Israelโs success was the result of intelligent decision-making, military and national strength, and luck. Israel must further improve its decision-making process and enhance its military and national strengths while reducing its reliance on luck and the failures of its opponents, who also learned lessons from this war.