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The IDFโ€™s current mechanism for determining and providing intelligence assessments rigidifies the thinking of intelligence analysts, and increases the risk that they will not recognize changes in the behavioral patterns of the adversary that affect the predictive ability and relevance of the forecast. Providing assessments should be the beginning of the process, not the end. A structured, open, and ongoing discussion of an assessment can make both the process and the product more dynamic in the face of changing conditions.
illustration: AI generated
Azerbaijan, a Shia Muslim-majority country, has the longest-standing and most comprehensive partnership with Israel. Azerbaijan is the only strategic partner in the Muslim world of the USโ€™s main ally in the Middle East. It shares borders with both Iran and Russia, and may thus be considered one of the pillars of Israelโ€™s regional strategic security architecture. Against the backdrop of the Trump administrationโ€™s efforts to reshape the global order, Azerbaijanโ€™s significanceโ€”for both American and Israeli strategic interestsโ€”has grown even further. This is driven by key trends in Washingtonโ€™s new foreign policy approach, within which Azerbaijanโ€™s advantages and capabilities can be effectively leveraged.
President Donald Trump's controversial initiative to relocate the Palestinian population from the Gaza Strip, primarily to Egypt and Jordan, is causing a stir in the Arab world. While the strong public resistance to the idea expressed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordanian King Abdullah seems to negate the possibility that the president's initiative can be implemented, President Trump insists that his plan is achievable and that Egypt and Jordan will eventually cooperate. His resettlement idea, viewed in todayโ€™s political environment as anathema, has a series of historical precedents.
Israelโ€™s original defense strategy strove to maximize wartime operational decisiveness as compensation for inferior resilience. In recent decades, anti-terror tactics have taken over our strategic thinking, pushing this principle aside. The current war is a crossroads. The October 7 attack can be seen as a localized failure, and the strategy of focusing on Hezbollah and Hamas can be continued. This would mean establishing buffer zones, which would lead to protracted guerrilla warfare and further weaken Israel. But there is another way to perceive the Iron Swords War: as the first campaign in a historic war against the Shiite axis. According to this view, this war is a defensive phase. As such, it has served its purpose. Its achievements are to be exploited for a major regrouping and the building of a renewed operational-level decisive capability to prepare us for the next phase of the broader war.
Israel began the Iron Swords War on October 7, 2023, on a โ€œYom Kippur Warโ€ dynamic: the devastating assault on Israel conducted that morning by Hamas was a strategic and operational surprise that collapsed the defense of the Gaza envelope and with it, the foundations of Israel's national security. The war ended on January 17, 2025, on a โ€œSix-Day Warโ€ dynamic: a fundamental positive change had occurred on all of Israel's main combat fronts. How did this happen? Israelโ€™s success was the result of intelligent decision-making, military and national strength, and luck. Israel must further improve its decision-making process and enhance its military and national strengths while reducing its reliance on luck and the failures of its opponents, who also learned lessons from this war.

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