The 2018 Winter Olympics and North Korea

The good news is that the 2018 Winter Olympics, which will be held in PyeongChang, South Korea, might serve as a venue for confidence-building measures towards negotiations between South and North Korea. The bad news is that North Korea has no intention of giving up its nuclear and missile capabilities. Pyongyang is changing its strategy towards Seoul in order to earn credit that it can use to ease sanctions without sacrificing deterrence.

How Iran Became the Dominant Power in the Middle East

Iran has emerged as the big winner of the so-called “Arab Spring.” Russia also benefited greatly – it achieved its aims in Syria by helping to preserve the Assad regime, and in the process, became the key broker of the postwar settlement – but Tehran made major gains not only in Syria but in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon as well.

Protests in Iran: Social Challenges vs. Foreign Policy Ambitions

The social protests now sweeping across Iran reflect the deep tension between the Islamic regime’s commitment of vast resources to the assertion of Tehran’s regional hegemony and the yearning of middle class Iranians for an improvement in their economic wellbeing. And while the Islamist establishment that took power in the 1979 revolution is keenly aware of the perils of popular restiveness, history teaches that prolonged retention of power often makes regimes oblivious to the needs and yearnings of their subjects. This could upset the delicate balance between state and society.

Iranian Protests Raise Tricky Questions for US and Saudi Policymakers

In many ways, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad faces the same considerations in deciding how to respond to the protests in Iran as does US President Donald J. Trump. Support for the protesters could amount to support for hardline conservative factions in Iran.

Demonstrations in Iran Reflect the Strength of US Alliances

The chants being shouted in Mashhad and Tehran to protest the regime’s dissipation of resources on distant battlefields – “No to Palestine,” “No to Gaza and Lebanon – Only Iran is Worth Dying For” – underscore the fact that the US is the only major power to have many allies whose strategic importance is matched by mutual economic benefits.

Betting on the Wrong Horse? US, and Iranian Hardliners, Spin Anti-Government Protests

In supporting recent anti-government protests in Iran, both Iranian hardliners and the US State Department might want to be careful what they wish for. Not only are the protests unlikely to spark the kind of change either of the two adversaries might be hoping for, but they are also refusing to stick to the different scripts the Trump administration and opponents of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani prefer to read into them.

The Iraq War’s Intelligence Fiasco 14 Years On: The WMDs That Never Were

The rationale for the 2003 Iraq War was the American intelligence community’s assessment that the Saddam Hussein regime possessed chemical and biological weapons and was pursuing nuclear weapons. This assessment proved a colossal failure, as no trace of nonconventional weapons was ever found in Iraq. Though the overthrow of Saddam’s cruel totalitarian regime was nevertheless worthwhile, domestic pressure led the US to quickly withdraw its forces from Iraq – resulting in many American casualties and preventing the establishment of a stable pro-Western regime.

Assessing the Islamic World’s Ho-Hum Response to Trump’s Jerusalem Declaration

Arab and western leaders alike responded to President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital with dire warnings of imminent uproar. That uproar didn’t materialize, probably because the Islamic world is too mired in its own domestic problems to mobilize over Jerusalem.

Trump’s Recognition of Jerusalem: The View from Beijing

While he was on the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and start plans to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. On December 6, 2017, he made good on that promise. Like media elsewhere around the world, Chinese newspapers – which express the positions of the central government in Beijing – had much to say on the matter. The Chinese responses cast light on two areas: Israeli-Chinese relations and Chinese foreign policy towards the greater Middle East.

US-Russia Relations Plunge Still Further

Tensions between Russia and the US have reached new heights over the past several weeks. Washington appears to be changing its military policy across the former Soviet space and is worried about Moscow’s close relations with Tehran and Ankara.

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