The Rami Hamdallah Compliment: IDF Policy Towards the Palestinians Proves Its Value

Measured IDF policy towards the Palestinians does not reflect leftist leanings in the IDF high command or fear of the ICC. The main driver of IDF policy is a sensible cost-benefit analysis. The benefits of a much harsher line, in terms of reducing the current occasional pattern of violence, are uncertain, but the costs would certainly be high – not least in terms of opportunities to boost Israel's relations with key players around the world. These considerations have now withstood the test of the dramatic events on the Temple Mount, and proved as relevant as ever.

Israel’s Possible Paths to Nuclear War

North Korea’s nuclearization has implications for Israel's nuclear deterrence posture. There are several plausible means by which a nuclear conflict could arise in the Middle East. It may be time to consider a phase-out of Israel's "deliberate nuclear ambiguity" and to focus Israeli planning around evaluations of enemy rationality.

Modi’s Visit – The View from Jerusalem

The visit by the Indian PM Narendra Modi caused many Jerusalemites, like me, a lot of traffic delays. In retrospect, it was definitely a price worth paying. Modi showed remarkable courage by coming to Israel without balancing it with a visit to the Palestinian Authority. His departure from the political correct symmetry pleased the Israelis and signaled that India has decided to act on its national interests. Israelis hope Modi’s pragmatic approach will be emulated by other senior dignitaries coming to Israel.

Erdoğan’s Mission Impossible: Sustainable Turkish-Arab Solidarity

Burak Bekdil
July 20, 2017
Paper No. 535

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who firmly believes it is religion that should shape national friendships and enmities, has tried singlehandedly to inject love for the Arab into Turkish society. The desire to accomplish this has implications for Turkish foreign policy. Erdoğan’s grand design has crashed not only into the Arab Spring but also into Middle East realism. The Saudi-led Gulf siege of Qatar came as a complete shock: one Sunni brother had taken out the sword against another.

Rethinking Israel-World Jewry Relations

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Much is being written against the ultra-orthodox fiat over prayer and conversion in Israel, emphasizing the potential consequences if the US “diaspora” were to take offense and become irreversibly alienated. But the US is not Israel’s periphery. American Jewry is not Israel’s diaspora, and no Jew in the US lives in exile. Israel must adapt to modern times – in faith, as it does in technology – first and foremost, for the sake of its own citizenry. It must take a firm, fair, and inclusive position on who is and is not a Jew, who is and is not an Israeli, and how the two attributes can reconcile in a modern pluralistic democracy.

Pakistan, Afghanistan, and In Between

The tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan reached new heights at the end of May after the explosion of a fuel tanker in the diplomatic neighborhood of Kabul. The Chinese leadership, which until recently has watched these tensions from afar, decided to step in and build a mechanism of collaboration. This move is consistent with China’s strategic aim: the stabilization of the global arena in general, and of countries that might be partners in the BRI initiative in particular. As much as the Chinese want to build land and sea roads, they will have to deal with difficulties in and among the countries these roads will cross.

Pursuits of Pyrrhic Prestige in the Middle East

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: As demonstrated by Ottoman Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent’s letter of 1536 to French King Francis I, the clout of absolute political prestige finds legitimacy in the power of religion. The prestigious absolutisms animating the claim to fame of most states in and around Arabia today could become the reason why the Middle East may soon have to unite or disintegrate.

Potable Water vs. Energy Resources: National Security Under Trump and Netanyahu

Access to potable water is critical for Israel’s future, yet Israel depends more and more on desalination plants, aquifers, and water from outside its borders to provide this resource. These sources could be in jeopardy as Israel seeks to extract oil and natural gas off its coast and on land. There is a real possibility that President Donald Trump might seek access to Israel’s energy supplies at the cost of its water, an ominous prospect.

Abbas Will Never Walk the Walk of Peace

Thanks to his struggle against Israel, Mahmoud Abbas is a political superstar. Many heads of NATO states can only dream of his access to great leaders. As long as Abbas does not make peace with Israel, he meets US presidents with almost the same frequency as the prime minister of Great Britain. If he does make peace, he might suffer the fate of Jordan’s kings, who meet the US president far less after having signed the Israel-Jordan peace treaty than they did before.

Dismantle UNRWA

Adi Schwartz
July 14, 2017
Paper No. 528

In a surprising change of policy, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has called for the dismantling of UNRWA. Such a move could benefit both Israel and the peace process. The new US administration might change its decades-old policy as well.

Perspectives Papers