The US Election: Preliminary Lessons for US Allies

It appears likely that Joe Biden will take office as president of the United States in January, and American allies will need to assess the implications. The reimposition of a revised Iran nuclear deal and reemphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian issue are to be expected, as is re-engagement with international organizations. Another likely factor is a diminishing of pressure on China. But the politicized nature of the American security state and the administration’s promised “Europeanization” of American laws and norms may also facilitate cooperation even as American corporate domination is promoted.

Whither Transatlantic Relations in the Biden Era?

Relations between the US and the EU are expected to improve during the presidency of Joe Biden, but it is not yet clear whether the disagreements Europe had with Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, were about methods or substance. Washington and Brussels can work together on issues like climate change and can probably find synergies in international organizations, but their understanding of security challenges remains different. The most likely area in which they can cooperate effectively is the creation of a coordinated Western approach to the problem of COVID-19.

Should the IDF Manage the COVID-19 Crisis?

The claim that management of the COVID-19 crisis by the IDF’s Home Front Command would have resulted in a far better outcome is based on the illusion that all emergencies have a common denominator that enables organizations to prepare for and deal with them effectively. But this is a false assumption.

Turkey vs. the West: A Tug of War Beyond the Aegean

The recent escalation of tensions in the Aegean has the potential to strengthen the political bond between Greece and its Western allies, as well as force the EU to shift from threatening sanctions on Turkey to actually imposing them. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will try to keep tensions high enough to present a heroic front to his Islamist/nationalist base but not high enough to trigger EU sanctions.

Turkey’s Win-Win Strategy in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has become an important component of Turkish foreign policy. Over the years, Ankara’s support for Baku has grown exponentially. Diplomacy was an element of this support, but more significant was the dispatch of sophisticated weaponry. Greater support for Azerbaijan coincided with Turkey’s more active foreign policy in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, and is now strikingly different from Ankara-Baku relations of the 1990s and even the early 2010s. The reason for Ankara’s assertiveness could be access to energy and trade routes.

Changing Attitudes Toward Religiosity: A Double-Edged Sword for Arab Rulers

Public opinion polling in the Arab world suggests that autocratic leaders like Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and his UAE counterpart, Muhammad bin Zayed, have gotten some things right. Both men have to varying degrees replaced religion with nationalism as the ideology legitimizing their rule and sought to ensure that countries in the region broadly adhere to their worldview.

Biden and Israel: Continuity and Change

The Biden administration will both continue and change Washington's fundamental approach to foreign policy. Biden will continue America's gradual withdrawal from world leadership, but will restore collaboration with the EU, NATO, and the UN, and assign more weight to human rights. He will try to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran and will be hesitant to expand the new Israel-Arab strategic alliance based on normalization agreements. He will continue the close strategic alliance with Israel and keep the US embassy in Jerusalem, but will reopen a consulate in East Jerusalem and restore economic aid to the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA.

Normalizing with Cairo Rather than Riyadh Could Be a Major Achievement

Normalizing relations between the two veteran peacemakers, Israel and Egypt, rather than making peace with Saudi Arabia could be the crowning achievement of the Abraham Accords peace process. An official Egyptian approval of the normalization of relations between Israel and Sudan could be the harbinger of change.

Biden and Israel: A Return to the Obama Era?

The election of Joe Biden as the 46th president of the United States requires an examination of the significance for Israel of the transition of power. After four years of unprecedented breakthroughs for Israel during President Donald Trump’s administration, is Israel destined to return to the Obama era in the shape of his former deputy?

What Biden’s Victory Means for Turkey

If Joe Biden remains loyal to his pre-election rhetoric, he might punish Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey with a slew of sanctions for buying critical weapons systems from Russia and helping to weaken US sanctions on Iran. But Biden’s history with Erdoğan gives mixed indicators of how he might deal with Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian leader. Biden will not be able to opt for a pragmatic approach to Ankara completely free of concerns over civil liberties and human rights—Turkey’s ever-widening democracy deficit makes that impossible. But Erdoğan’s team can “buy” a new modus operandi with Washington under Biden.

Perspectives Papers