Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

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It took the Arab world 41 years to produce another Sadat. The UAE’s brave soldier and strongman prince Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan proved his diplomatic vision by striking a deal to normalize relations with Israel. Bahrain has welcomed the deal and is expected to be the next Arab state to reach a public rapprochement with Israel. Oman and Morocco are interested as well.
While normalization between the UAE and Israel is probably not the game-changer some believe it to be, it does firm up a changing regional environment. The deal will create a new dynamic on three levels: domestic, regional, and international. Expect more pieces to fall into place soon as other countries adjust.
The Israeli peace agreement with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is transforming strategic alliances in the Middle East. It formalizes the Israeli-Sunni Arab bloc against the aggressive and violent Iranian Shiite crescent that spreads from Tehran via Iraq and Syria to Lebanon and from Tehran to Yemen. The agreement sends messages to Iran, the Palestinians, the EU, and Joe Biden. It shows that the Arab states are no longer ready to sacrifice vital strategic interests for Palestinian rejectionism of peace proposals, most recently the Trump peace plan. It also busts myths about Israel and Middle Eastern politics.
The Israel-UAE peace deal was an unpleasant surprise to the Moroccan diplomatic and intelligence community as it foiled the general expectation that Rabat would be the third regional power to hold the distinction of normalizing relations with Jerusalem. Reliance on past accomplishments in relationship-building, sentimental historical ties, and informal alliances with lobby groups are no longer sufficient if Morocco still wishes to play a leading role in this geopolitical chess game. Rabat can still come out ahead if it adopts an assertive strategic policy reorientation, even if it has lost the advantage of being the first to make a move.
Israel will be caught on the horns of a dilemma as China projects itself commercially, politically, and militarily into the Middle East. The commercially driven new Cold War between the US and Beijing will force Israel to make difficult choices regarding its economic and strategic interests.
The great geostrategic and economic problems the Eastern Mediterranean is currently facing require drastic measures and original thinking. There are success stories in the region that provide positive examples of how a new collective reality can be created through the initiative of the main actors. Deeper cooperation and synergies can prove highly constructive for the region.
The recent visit of Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis to Israel was highly symbolic. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of full diplomatic relations between the two countries. It may well be possible for Jerusalem and Athens to cooperate with Turkey, though doing so will require all parties to be realistic about what is possible right now in view of the current state of relations with Ankara.

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