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Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

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Syria: The Decline of the Last Conventional Threat

Following the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, the Syrian state became a breeding ground for militant groups and foreign fighters. While Assad’s allies managed to save his regime, those alliances came at a price. The declining state of Syria’s demographic and economic stability combined with its deteriorating military power in the region has eliminated the need for Israel to view the Assad regime as a central threat to its national security, at least over the short term.

Germany’s Antisemitism Allies

Many people who are not antisemites are nevertheless their allies. This can be seen clearly in Germany, which contains whitewashers and minimizers of antisemitism as well as people who want to abolish the position of national antisemitism commissioner. There are also Germans who falsely claim that the BDS movement is not antisemitic, as well as those who want the country to declare the IHRA definition of antisemitism, in particular the part about Israel, invalid.

Kabul in 1979, Minsk in 2020?

Alexander Lukashenko’s days as the autocratic president of Belarus are clearly numbered, and Russia will likely play a key role in his exit. What is less clear is just how that exit will come about and what role the neighbor to the East will play. Recent history provides us with a few possible scenarios.

Iran and the Israel-UAE Deal

The peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates presents the Iranian regime with dilemmas on both the foreign and the domestic front. The regime fears the emergence of a new international alliance that will have greater power to contain its hegemonic regional aspirations, and there is a new urgency to the need to prove to the Iranian people that the government’s imperialist foreign policy works to their benefit.

The Israel-UAE Peace Deal: A Master Stroke

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to normalize ties with Israel has boxed hardline Arab regimes into a corner, as it exposes the emptiness of the “Palestinian cause” as a tool with which to distract and control their citizens. The Israel-UAE peace deal, unlike the Egyptian and Jordanian agreements, seems to contain the potential for a genuinely warm peace, a prospect that can ultimately benefit the entire region.

In the Wake of the Israel-UAE Deal, Whither the Arab and Muslim World?

An agreement between Israel and the UAE to establish diplomatic relations, a Saudi-Pakistani spat over Kashmir, feuds among the Gulf States, and strife between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates drive nails into the notion that the component countries in the Arab and Muslim world share common geopolitical interests on the basis of ethnicity or religion and wish to embrace one another in solidarity.

Will Erdoğan’s God Stop the Turkish Lira’s Slide?

The Turkish lira’s unprecedented slide, on top of soaring interest and inflation rates, record unemployment, and recession, is contributing to a looming economic collapse. In the face of such gloom, President Erdoğan is offering his conservative supporters a new deal: I’ll give you more conservatism if you ignore the economic picture.

The Israel-UAE Peace Agreement Opens the Door

It took the Arab world 41 years to produce another Sadat. The UAE’s brave soldier and strongman prince Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed Al Nahyan proved his diplomatic vision by striking a deal to normalize relations with Israel. Bahrain has welcomed the deal and is expected to be the next Arab state to reach a public rapprochement with Israel. Oman and Morocco are interested as well.

Implications of the Israel-UAE Peace Deal

While normalization between the UAE and Israel is probably not the game-changer some believe it to be, it does firm up a changing regional environment. The deal will create a new dynamic on three levels: domestic, regional, and international. Expect more pieces to fall into place soon as other countries adjust.

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