In November 2025, the materials published by the Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program at BESA focused mainly on the issue of Kazakhstan’s accession to the Abraham Accords and on the problem of combatants’ reintegration and political participation in Russia and Ukraine.
Andrey Kazantsev-Vaisman notes that Astana’s joining the Abraham Accords is a very convenient and low-risk way to build political rapport with the US, while not undermining the regional geopolitical alliances and not annoying Moscow or Beijing. Especially at a time when a political gesture in support of the economic cooperation was needed, Kazakhstan took advantage of the Gaza ceasefire and of easing tensions between Washington and Beijing, and Washington and Moscow, respectively. Being a “symbolic layer” that speaks to Trump’s geopolitical priorities, the accession to the Accords means, mostly, the facilitation of economic cooperation between Astana and Jerusalem. However, geopolitically, this move establishes a new precedent within the Muslim world.
The material by the PSCRP team frames Kazakhstan’s accession to the Abraham Accords as an “explicit rejection of extremist ideologies” that projects an image of the country as a responsible international actor, a “secular, open, and investment-friendly” state. At the same time, the paper highlights the geostrategic necessity of including Azerbaijan in this process, while also overcoming the outdated legislation concerning Baku’s cooperation with the US.
Finally, Vladimir Ze’ev Khanin describes Kazakhstan’s joining the Abrahamic club as the result of a long-term development, which included the creation of multilateral bodies coordinating US-Central Asian ties, and as a move aimed primarily towards enhancing Astana-Washington relations. This decision is in line with the new administration’s idea of extending the initial “target” of the Accords, namely, the previously hostile Muslim states with no relations with Israel, to those countries that have long before established diplomatic ties with Jerusalem. Experts call this move of Trump’s administration putting a “boot between China and Russia.” Despite the hopes and expectations, it is not Azerbaijan that became the first post-Soviet state to join the club, which can be possibly explained by Baku’s wish to enter the Accords after they prove their relevance, and as a symbolic culmination.
Alexander Shpunt analyzes the multifold implications of a new social group now being forged in Russia, namely, the veterans of the “special military operation” coming home from the battlefield. He points at, first, the contractual basis of the draft, creating financial incentives, especially in depressed regions; second, at the “elitization” of the combatants’ families who now may have money but nowhere to spend it, which leads to frustration. Third, of certain importance is the “military rehabilitation” of convicted criminals: although the (former) prison population constitutes just a small percentage of those fighting in the “SVO,” the very mechanism deserves close attention. Shpunt also highlights the growing role of combat service as a social lift and entry ticket to the administrative elites, and the potential that the returning combatants might have in the eyes of organized crime.
In a similar vein, Shpunt goes on to analyze the conflict’s impact on civil life in Ukraine. He notes that, due to the significantly increased public trust in the Armed Forces, the political and electoral role of veterans and combatants has also grown substantially, with a particular focus on the potential of combat generals, such as Budanov and Zaluzhny, to challenge the power of the “Zelensky bloc.” This causes the political forces’ efforts to draw veterans to their orbit. The author also highlights the criminal potential of the returning (and deserting) combatants, caused by a conscription situation that led to a significant percentage of men leaving in semi-legal conditions, and thus prone to criminal recruitment. Another problem, acknowledged by the security forces, is the attempts of the international, specifically South American, organized crime groups to gain battlefield experience by joining certain combat units that recruit foreign citizens.
Traditionally, Alexander Shpunt has prepared a monthly overview of several significant publications on the post-Soviet conflicts – this time, focusing on various methods in the research of political and economic processes in the region.
In November, in addition to preparing the analytical materials, the PSCR program organized a book launch seminar for the newly published “Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Belarus.” The volume was presented by its editor, Dr. Aliaksei Kazharski (Charles University, Czechia), as well as some chapters’ authors, namely, Pavel Kotau (Palacky University, Czechia) and Tatsiana Kulakevich (University of South Florida, US).
In the coming months, the PSCRP is going to publish even more research materials and (co-)organize more research events, so stay tuned!