In the first month of 2025, the papers authored by the PSCRP researchers covered a broad range of post-Soviet subregions, including the South Caucasus, Central Asia, Russia, and the Baltics.
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- Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai
- Paper No. 2326
Israel, the US, and other international and regional actors are faced with a dilemma. They are unwilling to invest too many resources in countries/regions with poor governance, but need to prevent negative developments like famine and terrorism from arising. One possible approach to this problem is “Semi-Self Governance” (SSG), which allows local forces to take accountability and improve the lives of their civilian populations while allowing for external intervention when problems develop. This principle could align with President Trump’s strategic vision.
- Dr. Nir Levitan
- Paper No. 2325
Growing competition in the Arctic Circle is putting Greenland's strategic position on the public agenda. The Arctic island, which is under Danish sovereignty, is vital to American interests given the military presence of Russia and China and the nearby shipping lanes. These interests are leading to secret understandings between Denmark and the US.
- Yaakov Lappin
- Paper No. 2324
Israel faces a critical strategic decision regarding Iran's nuclear program. The Islamic Republic is accelerating its enrichment capabilities and is systematically approaching the threshold of nuclear breakout. At issue is whether to strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure immediately, leveraging Iran's degraded air defenses and regional setbacks during the “lame duck” period of the current Biden administration, or wait for a potential alignment with the incoming Trump administration, which could bring enhanced diplomatic and military support. Both options carry significant potential risks and benefits.
During a December 2024 meeting with the President of Azerbaijan, leaders of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) acknowledged that the U.S. had not fully appreciated Azerbaijan's longstanding support for Israel and contributions to regional stability.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has revived Turkey’s plans to construct oil and gas pipelines through the country, turning it into a regional “energy corridor” for neighboring states. Some of these plans would offer the Arab Gulf States a more convenient land route for exporting energy to Europe through Turkey, posing a challenge to Israel’s similar aspirations. Israel has other opportunities to export its natural gas to new markets via pipeline, but they pose the risk of undermining Israel’s relationship with Greece and Cyprus. Israel should follow the "pipeline game" in Syria closely to ensure that new economic opportunities in the region don't pass it by.
The majority of PSCRP materials in the final month of 2024 concentrated on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Thursday 16.1.2025, 6:00 pm – 7:30 pm - Israel Standard Time
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham
- Paper No. 2323
The collapse of the Assad regime has returned the issue of Syrian chemical weapons to the fore. The international community now sees a favorable opportunity to root them out, provided that effective cooperation with the new Syrian regime is established.
In the complex and often unpredictable realm of global politics, few political developments carry as much potential for transformative impact as the prospect of a second Trump presidency. This collection of expert analyses delves into the multifaceted implications of such a scenario, offering a comprehensive and nuanced exploration of how a Trump return to the White House could reshape global strategic landscapes. With a special focus on the Middle East and Israel, the publication provides an in-depth examination of how potential shifts in US foreign policy could reconfigure regional dynamics and strategic relationships.