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Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

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The sharp decline in the value of the Iranian currency is causing upheaval in the Iranian economy and challenging the government and the banking sector. The local currencyโ€™s plunge to a rate of 6,000 tomans to the dollar, despite the high level of oil and gas revenues, reflects a lack of trust between the citizens and the banking system. A consideration of Iranโ€™s economic policy sheds light on the limitations of the โ€œdual economyโ€ practiced by the Islamic Republic since its inception.
The attack on Syriaโ€™s chemical weapons (CW) sites wasnโ€™t intended to influence the outcome of the war; it was designed to prevent the future use of CW.ย  This wonโ€™t save many lives, because regular bombs can kill as many people as CW. But ending the horrors of chemical warfare is a worthwhile and feasible international goal.ย  The way we react to the attack on Assadโ€™s CW assets can affect the possibility of future use. We should applaud the international actions against Assadโ€™s CW instead of complaining about what the attacks didnโ€™t accomplish.
In thinking about deterrence-based national security, Israel must regard the country's nuclear and conventional threats as seamless and interwoven. This is because a recognizably capable and coherent conventional deterrent could prevent any too-sudden escalations to nuclear dimensions of conflict, and because a similarly capable and coherent nuclear deterrent could best ensure that adversaries remain suitably reluctant to menace Israel's existence. Moreover, because both interrelated forms of Israeli deterrence always require a presumption of enemy rationality โ€“ and because these enemies might not always conform to this reassuring presumption โ€“ Israel will have to develop a far more conspicuous doctrine for dealing with prospectively non-rational adversaries. While any such doctrine, inter alia, must include a broad variety of plausible preemption choices, there are conceivable circumstances wherein Israel's pertinent enemies would be judged irrational or potentially irrational, and where identifiable cost-effective preemption options no longer exist. At that eleventh-hour point of crisis, Israel's leaders would need to have ready certain still-promising security options other than deterrence (conventional or nuclear) or preemption.
The takeover of Turkeyโ€™s largest independent media group by an ErdoฤŸan crony was not unexpected given the troubles and systematic state harassment suffered by the Dogan Media Company over the past decade. After the takeover, the opposition media will be limited to one large-circulation daily, a couple of small, left-wing newspapers, and a number of small digital platforms, with the third group now facing new pressure from the government.
Debilitating hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran is about lots of things, not least who will have the upper hand in a swath of land stretching from Central Asia to the Atlantic coast of Africa. While attention is focused on ensuring that continued containment of Iran ensures that Saudi Arabia has a leg up, geopolitics is but one side of the equation. Natural gas is the other.
In the years ahead, Israel could face the growing prospect of WMD terrorism โ€“ i.e., attacks involving chemical, biological, or even nuclear weapons. In this connection, it is vital that Israeli officials do their utmost to prevent perfidious enemy manipulations of humanitarian international law. This is especially urgent with regard to enemy use of "human shields," an illegal form of military deception that could be used to deter Israeli retaliation. Perfidy can originate with both state and sub-state foes, and could conceivably involve primitive nuclear devices such as "dirty bombs" (weapons that do not involve genuine chain reactions, but instead attach conventional explosives to fissile materials).

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