The Qatar Opposition: Avoiding the Hariri Miscalculation

The widely criticized attempted resignation by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri backfired as a political move against Iran for two reasons: first, because Hezbollah is already largely in control of the Lebanese government; and second, because the Saudis, who backed the move, have little leverage inside the country. Continuing efforts to effect similar change inside another Iran proxy, Qatar, are bound to fail for similar reasons. In order to succeed, the Saudis and their allies should build authentic relationships with potential supporters and create an environment receptive to their interests.

A Perilous Tango for Four in the Eastern Med

The Eastern Mediterranean has entered a new period of high volatility, with Israel and Greece in the eye of the storm. Both countries are facing an upgraded strategic challenge from Turkey and Iran. This is not simply an interstate problem but a broader crisis that will influence the future geostrategic physiognomy of the Eastern Med.

The US National Security Document and the Return of Geopolitics to Eurasia

The new National Security Strategy of the US enumerates the major problems and challenges facing the US and its institutions, as well as the policies Washington plans to adopt to carry out its foreign policy agenda. Though the major thrusts of the document are relatively close to what US statesmen have expressed over the past few years, it can be argued that the new strategy signals a significant development in the US approach to foreign relations: the return of geopolitics.

The Arabs Leverage Lucrative Nuclear Contracts

Controversy in South Korea over a secret military clause in a nine-year-old agreement to build the United Arab Emirates’ first nuclear reactor raises a Pandora’s Box of questions about political and military demands that Arab nations may seek to impose as they embark on a nuclear trajectory.

Iran and Bahrain: Ancient Ambitions, New Tactics

The Bahraini government has long claimed that Iran is encouraging the Shiite opposition, which is fighting for recognition and political change. This is not an empty fear. Tehran’s push for hegemony in the archipelago is not a new phenomenon. However, unlike monarchic Iran, whose hegemonic drive focused on the international political-diplomatic arena, the Islamic Republic is working for change from within and is using both soft power and subversion.

Hope and Optimism: The Indian-Israeli Relationship

Sarosh Bana
March 6, 2018
Paper No. 761

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s state visit to India was predictably full of pomp and circumstance. More importantly, it underscored yet again the closeness that now characterizes the bilateral relationship.

Turkey and NATO: From Loveless to Hateful Marriage

Burak Bekdil
March 5, 2018
Paper No. 760

Erdoğan prepares to launch his campaign for presidential elections scheduled for November 2019. At a time of rising xenophobia and anti-western sentiments across Turkey, his campaign will undoubtedly target the “evil powers of the West,” adding to the isolationist Turkish psyche. Russian President Vladimir Putin could not have possibly found a better partner for his attempts to divide and weaken NATO.

The Taliban’s Threat to Peace in Afghanistan

Vinay Kaura
March 4, 2018
Paper No. 759

Washington’s increased support notwithstanding, the Afghan government has thus far failed to contain the Taliban’s sustained terror campaign, while efforts to revive the moribund peace process have similarly run into a dead alley. It remains to be seen whether last week’s bold peace initiative by President Ashraf Ghani will strike a responsive chord with the Taliban.

The Myth of Russian Weakness

Western-centric expectations of Russian collapse in the face of its recent foreign policy and domestic setbacks fail to consider the Russian mindset, political culture, and “rules of the game,” thus grossly underestimating the regime’s and the country’s resilience.

Giving Pyongyang a “Bloody Nose”

Washington's "bloody nose" strategy against Pyongyang forces South Korean President Moon Jae-in to strike a delicate balance between the American demand to end the North Korean nuclear and missile programs and Pyongyang's insistence on keeping these programs intact.

Perspectives Papers