US-Saudi Nuclear Talks: A Middle East Barometer?

Talks aimed at transferring US nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia serve as an indicator of where the Saudi-Iranian rivalry is heading as well as the strength of the informal Saudi-Israeli alliance against Iran. The possible transfer could spark a new arms race in the Middle East and constitutes one explanation why Saudi responses to President Donald J. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel were muted and limited to rhetorical statements.

The US Should Arm Iranian Protesters

Rhetorical support for the Iranian protesters in their quest for freedom is not enough. The US, with the help of its allies, including Israel, must work 24/7 to provide – at the most opportune moment – arms and the knowhow to use them to the protesters against the regime. The time to act will be when casualties of the regime can be identified as coming from a broad spectrum of the Iranian public.

Egypt’s Nuclear Deal with Russia

The long-term agreement recently signed between Russia and Egypt to build a nuclear power plant at El-Dabaa is aimed at improving Egypt’s electricity sector and has no direct implications for the development of nuclear weapons. It is, however, likely to legitimize any future attempt by Egypt to build a uranium-enrichment or nuclear-fuel-reprocessing facility. While Egypt has already gained significant experience in the nuclear field, neither its plans to develop a civilian nuclear power plant nor its efforts to develop nuclear weapons have yet borne fruit.

Trump’s Security Strategy: Its Messages for Turkey

US President Donald Trump’s recently unveiled National Security Strategy paper does not specifically mention Turkey. Some Turks think this is good, as any mention would likely have been negative. But some think it is bad for Turkish interests because the absence of a mention highlights Turkey’s diminishing political clout in its region. Regardless, the strategy paper has messages for Ankara on several wavelengths.

Jerusalem Is Israel’s Capital – and That’s a Fact

There was a time when the world united against Galileo, who had defied holy teachings by stating that the Earth is neither flat nor the center of the universe, but revolves around the sun. President Trump’s acknowledgment that Jerusalem is Israel’s capital was also a plain statement of fact, one that Arabs and Muslims insist the West must simply wish away. “Eppur si muove,” said Galileo: the earth moves whether one acknowledges it or not. The same applies to the fact that Israel’s capital is Jerusalem.

The 2018 Winter Olympics and North Korea

The good news is that the 2018 Winter Olympics, which will be held in PyeongChang, South Korea, might serve as a venue for confidence-building measures towards negotiations between South and North Korea. The bad news is that North Korea has no intention of giving up its nuclear and missile capabilities. Pyongyang is changing its strategy towards Seoul in order to earn credit that it can use to ease sanctions without sacrificing deterrence.

How Iran Became the Dominant Power in the Middle East

Iran has emerged as the big winner of the so-called “Arab Spring.” Russia also benefited greatly – it achieved its aims in Syria by helping to preserve the Assad regime, and in the process, became the key broker of the postwar settlement – but Tehran made major gains not only in Syria but in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon as well.

Protests in Iran: Social Challenges vs. Foreign Policy Ambitions

The social protests now sweeping across Iran reflect the deep tension between the Islamic regime’s commitment of vast resources to the assertion of Tehran’s regional hegemony and the yearning of middle class Iranians for an improvement in their economic wellbeing. And while the Islamist establishment that took power in the 1979 revolution is keenly aware of the perils of popular restiveness, history teaches that prolonged retention of power often makes regimes oblivious to the needs and yearnings of their subjects. This could upset the delicate balance between state and society.

Iranian Protests Raise Tricky Questions for US and Saudi Policymakers

In many ways, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad faces the same considerations in deciding how to respond to the protests in Iran as does US President Donald J. Trump. Support for the protesters could amount to support for hardline conservative factions in Iran.

Demonstrations in Iran Reflect the Strength of US Alliances

The chants being shouted in Mashhad and Tehran to protest the regime’s dissipation of resources on distant battlefields – “No to Palestine,” “No to Gaza and Lebanon – Only Iran is Worth Dying For” – underscore the fact that the US is the only major power to have many allies whose strategic importance is matched by mutual economic benefits.

Perspectives Papers