Ukraine Won’t Be Solved Any Time Soon

The conflict in East Ukraine has reached a frozen phase in which neither side is making many gains. Despite agreements, the conflict has not seen any meaningful breakthrough for more than three years. Geopolitical imperatives dictate that progress will be contingent upon either Russia or Ukraine (i.e., the West) conceding their interests. The Ukrainian problem is rooted in the geography of the country as well as in the consistent failure of Russia to leverage its involvement in Syria and other theaters for western concessions.

The Turkish Love-Hate Relationship with America

About the same proportion of Turks view the US (72%) and ISIS (73%) as a threat to their country. That’s weird. Erdoğan’s generation of Islamists were anti-American largely because of the Arab-Israeli dispute – although they feared Soviet communism more than American imperialism. Future generations of Turkish Islamists will hate America even more because they will have gone through long years of anti-American indoctrination by a beloved leader and his powerful propaganda machine.

President Xi’s Economy-Focused Leadership Model

On September 3, the heads of the BRICS states gathered for a summit. At the event, Chinese President Xi Jinping once again presented his way of thinking about his role in the global arena, a role he believes should focus on economic and trade issues. His approach downplays the issues of North Korea’s nuclear pursuit and the persistent global problem of terrorism, raising questions about his ability – or indeed hi desire – to take on a world leadership position.

BRICS Without East Jerusalem

The 43-page Xiamen Declaration issued at the end of the ninth BRICS summit in early September marks an interesting shift concerning Israel. In paragraph 42, it makes the usual references to “relevant” UN resolutions, the Madrid Principles, the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, and “previous agreements” and calls for “a just, lasting and comprehensive solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Declaration calls for the creation of “an independent, viable, territorially contiguous Palestinian State living side by side in peace and security with Israel” – but contains no reference whatsoever to East Jerusalem.

How Palestine “Occupies” Itself

“Occupation” has become an all-purpose Palestinian tool. On the one hand, the Palestinians claim the Israeli “occupation” makes serious negotiations with Israel impossible. On the other, they claim the “occupation” makes the development of local institutions and civil society impossible. Western and Israeli diplomats have largely avoided criticism of this strategy, possibly because it has become a central tenet of Palestinian identity.

An Eye for an Eye: Iran Promises to Partition Saudi Arabia If Iraq Is Partitioned

Iran is now openly threatening to dismember Saudi Arabia for its support for Kurdish independence and secession from Iraq. This ratcheting up of tensions has implications not only for those two countries but for the region and the world at large. Israel would do well to remember that the Middle East is growing ever more volatile, and the US should sharpen its resolve to contain Iran.

Saudi Women Behind the Wheel: Prince Mohammed’s Litmus Test

Saudi Arabia’s long-awaited lifting of a ban on women’s driving, widely viewed as a symbol of Saudi misogyny, will likely serve as a litmus test for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s ability to introduce economic and social reforms despite conservative opposition. It also distracts attention from international criticism of the kingdom’s war in Yemen and charges by human rights groups, as well as some Muslim leaders, that the kingdom fosters sectarianism and prejudice against non-Muslims.

Might China Change Its Policy of Nonintervention?

China has had relationships with Venezuela and Congo – countries that have experienced severe internal difficulties of late – for dozens of years. In Venezuela, China has chosen not to intervene and has withdrawn its investments. Though Beijing has yet to respond in any significant way in Congo, it can be assumed that it will take a similar approach. It does not appear that the conflicts in Congo, though they are accompanied by some financial risk to China’s economy, will affect Beijing’s overall policy regarding foreign intervention.

How to Prevent a New Wave of Millions of Iraqi Refugees

A Shiite effort is already underway to purge Iraq of its majority Sunni population. The result may soon be a new mass exodus of Iraqi refugees, a multiplication of the migrant crisis that could have dire consequences for the rest of the world. One way to avoid this scenario is to turn Iraq into a federation of emirates – a solution that could also be productively applied to the West Bank, Jordan, Sudan, and Yemen.

Putin’s Next Presidential Term Will Be Different

Russia will hold its next presidential elections in March 2018, and current president Vladimir Putin has yet to announce his intention to run. Russians are accustomed to Putin’s late announcements of his candidacy (as occurred in 2004 and 2012), and he is widely expected to run. He will almost certainly win, but will have to find ways to handle fundamentally different domestic circumstances both during the election and after it.

Perspectives Papers