After Aleppo: Iran’s Ascendancy and Its Implications

Widespread moral revulsion at the horrors of the battle for Aleppo, and the aftershocks of the assassination of the Russian ambassador in Turkey, should not blind us to the dark strategic implications of the recent turn of events in Syria.

Can Trump Construct a New World Order?

Though he might be a novice in foreign policy, Donald Trump could bring about dramatic changes in the global arena by aligning with Russia against China. In this scenario, Russia would have an opportunity to align with Western civilization, ending a millennium-long schism. Will Russia be ready to end its cozy relations with the radical regime in Iran to become a true US ally in the fight against militant Islam?

Chemical Weapons in Syria, Iraq and Beyond: Assessment and Implications

Chemical weapons (CW) continue to be employed frequently in Syria and Iraq. While the scale of attacks has been relatively minor so far, the possibility remains that the Islamic State (IS) might attempt a high-impact WMD attack. Hezbollah, too, which is present in both Syria and Lebanon, might wish to be – or indeed, already may be – equipped with CW

The Red-Med Railway: New Opportunities for China, Israel, and the Middle East

The Chinese “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is a planned regional network of sea and rail infrastructure intended to strengthen the position of the Middle East as a critical trade route between East and West. One element of the planned BRI is the Red-Med rail project, which would connect the Israeli ports of Eilat and Ashdod.

Saudi-Egyptian Tensions: Rifts Within the “Camp of Stability” Serve Iran’s Interests

A dangerous rift has developed in Saudi-Egyptian relations on two fronts. The Saudis, for whom the Iranian-backed Houthi uprising in Yemen has become an existential issue, are aggrieved that Egypt is not pulling its full weight in that campaign. The Egyptian leadership fears that Saudi policies in Syria play into the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood (and the Brotherhood ally in Ankara), as well as other Islamist radicals.

Implications of the Emergent Russian-Hezbollah Coordination in Syria

Recently, Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese media reported on a first meeting in Aleppo between Russian senior military officials and Hezbollah field commanders, whereby the two sides agreed to continue conferring on a regular basis. The timing of this meeting, prior to the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, appears to have been a calculated move, and it bears important implications for the US and Israel.

Reassessing American Interests in the Middle East

President-Elect Trump has serious decisions to make about the Middle East, including what to do about Syria, how to tackle Islamic State, how to take on Iran, and, of course, how to handle the perennial Israel-Palestinian problem. Trump’s margin of error is narrow, especially since Russia and Iran are likely to test his leadership and determination.

Trump’s Ambivalence Towards NATO Could Backfire

US President-Elect Donald Trump has toned down the anti-NATO rhetoric he employed on the campaign trail, but it remains uncertain whether he appreciates the value of the organization for American interests. NATO provides security insurance not only to Europe but also to the US. Trump should be cautious about weakening its deterrence and power projection.

America and Russia: Towards a New Partnership?

A pragmatist like Reagan, President Trump will face three urgent foreign policy issues: renegotiating the Iran nuclear deal with a US-Israel military option and Russia’s acquiescence; resolving the human catastrophe in Syria in partnership with President Putin; and a Great Bargain with Putin on the Ukraine. At home, Trump’s challenge will be to bridge bitter political and racial divides. Establishing bipartisan commissions on the Middle East and Russia might help. So would the appointment of the non-partisan General David Petraeus as Secretary of State.

Australia and Israel: Good Guys Should Stick Together

Australia and Israel should develop a more significant strategic partnership. They are each small countries that play important roles in their respective regions. They have democratic values in common as well as a pro-American orientation in their foreign policy.

Perspectives Papers