Turkey’s Crypto Crackdown Leaves Investors Scrambling

Gerelyn Terzo
June 28, 2021
Paper No. 2082

Turkey has decided to throw down the gauntlet on the cryptocurrency industry. It has assigned money laundering and terror financing regulations to the nascent market, leaving Turkish crypto investors scrambling as they face sky-high inflation and a severely weakened national currency.

How Many Gaza Palestinians Were Killed by Hamas Rockets in May? An Estimate

Much of the coverage and commentary surrounding the fighting in May between Hamas and Israel has focused on numbers, especially the much larger number of Palestinians than Israelis killed. The number of deaths is actually very low for such an intense conflict, a testament to Israel’s Iron Dome and civil defense systems, and its use of precision weapons and warnings aimed at minimizing Palestinian civilian deaths. Of course, Hamas aims to kill as many Israeli civilians as possible, but its rockets place both Israelis and Palestinians in peril, because many of those rockets—in this case 680—misfire and explode inside Gaza. The death and destruction caused is, of course, usually blamed on Israel. The question addressed here is how many Palestinians are likely to have been killed by these errant Palestinian rockets in May. The estimate arrived at is 91, amounting to 36% of the alleged Palestinian death toll.

The Muslim Brotherhood Inside the Israeli Government

In an attempt to justify breaking his repeated promises not to form a government with the support of the United Arab List (Ra’am) because of its opposition to Israel’s existence and backing of Palestinian terror organizations, new PM Naftali Bennett is portraying Ra’am as a pragmatic Islamic party seeking to advance the interests of the Israeli Arab sector. But pragmatism must not be confused with moderation.

Challenges to Gaza Ceasefire Are Arising Quickly

Yaakov Lappin
June 24, 2021
Paper No. 2079

Hamas will always prioritize its radical ideological and political objectives over pragmatic considerations whenever those two factors come into conflict. As Israeli decision makers monitor Hamas’s renewed efforts at force build-up following Operation Guardian of the Walls, they face dilemmas as they look for “least-worst” options.

Iran, Russia, and Turkey: A Eurasionist Model of Foreign Relations

Emil Avdaliani
June 22, 2021
Paper No. 2078

Iran, Turkey, and Russia are building a new model of bilateral ties. Unshackled by formal alliances, the trio is showing it can work together to limit Western influence while avoiding an overreliance on one another. This mixture of correlating and contradictory interests, which characterizes the new Eurasianist model of bilateral relations, is a product of the changing global order.

Erdoğan’s Caricature State

Burak Bekdil
June 21, 2021
Paper No. 2077

Power fatigue per se does not fully explain the decline of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He will have a hard time uniting a majority of Turks around the flag and the mosque in the presidential elections of 2023.

China’s New Security Concept for Afghanistan

Emil Avdaliani
June 20, 2021
Paper No. 2076

The announced withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan could represent an opportunity for Beijing to expand its geopolitical influence westward. This would be fraught with security risks for Xinjiang and Central Asia. Beijing might be creative in how it manages the Afghan problem, possibly establishing a quartet of states that share not only security and economic interests but a deep revulsion toward an America-led world order.

Concessions to Hamas Lead to Violence. Holding Firm Leads to Calm

Israeli concessions in Jerusalem led to the recent outbreak of serious fighting, but insisting on the flag parade led to relative calm. Will the new leadership of Bennett and Lapid take this to heart, or will Israelis pay the costs of a misguided belief in concessions?

Erdoğan’s Eastern Med Repentance: Too Little, Too Late

Burak Bekdil
June 17, 2021
Paper No. 2074

Turkey’s string of failures and increasing isolation in the Eastern Med have forced President Erdoğan to recalibrate his policy toward the region.

Imagining a World Without US Primacy

Emil Avdaliani
June 16, 2021
Paper No. 2073

The shrinking of the American presence in Eurasia will accelerate the creation of new spheres of influence. The US will still be a prominent player, but its power will be significantly curtailed and the global institutions it has built will decay—the inevitable result of illiberal states ganging up on the last remnants of the liberal order remaining in the heart of Eurasia.

Perspectives Papers