In April 2024, the PSCR programโs materials covered the conflictual dynamics in and around Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Estonia.
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If the US and the EU require other countries to halt their ties with Russia while these ties have nothing to do with security issues, it would be logical to expect a more coherent approach from the West: it should set the same conditions for Armenia if the Caucasian nation wants to pivot to the West.
Technically, by agreeing to return to the demarcation of the borders according to the Alma-Ata Declarations, the Armenian side validates the Azerbaijani thesis of the โjust warโ. The demarcation agreement will lead to the departure of the Russian border guards from the Armenian side โ they were stationed there by request of Yerevan because it was afraid of military escalation.
Armenia, like other post-Soviet countries, particularly in the southern region, traditionally pursues a multi-vector foreign policy. The aim of such a policy is to utilize different options to maximize foreign assistance and support. This often involves addressing unconventional tasks to balance conflicting foreign policy vectors. Armenia faces a similar task of balancing in the new configuration.
In March 2024, the PSCRP program of the BESA Center covered in its materials the regional developments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as particular problems related to Ukraine and Russia.
Iran would become Armeniaโs new patron and it could eventually join the ranks of pro-Iranian proxies, with dire consequences for the country. In this scenario, Iran would also gain new arguments and resources in its interaction with Russia, Turkey and India, which it could exchange for something else. This could create new threats to Israel.
All the countries of the South Caucasus are in anticipation, waiting for Russiaโs withdrawal from the war with Ukraine. It is clear that it will emerge from this conflict weakened, but it is not known to what extent
Terrorist act was most probably organized by ISIS-Khorasan. For Israel it is important that the Moscow synagogue was originally the primary target. Russian security services demonstrated very low effectiveness during the โCrocus cityโ events.
