Trump Peace Plan Unlikely to Lead to Major Escalation, But IDF Is Taking Precautions

While few in Israel expect a major escalation to follow Trump’s announcement of the “Deal of the Century”, the IDF is conducting ongoing situation assessments to keep its finger on the pulse. The Israeli defense establishment is preparing to study the details of the proposal closely to see what conclusions can be drawn in terms of potential security ramifications.

The Decision to Go to War Is More and More Difficult

The phenomenon of a growing reluctance to go to war and commit ground troops to combat can be seen around the world, not only in Israel. Citizens are increasingly demanding clarity on the purpose of the wars their armies are expected to fight.

The Upheaval in Syria Opens the Door for Iranian Attack

The latest upheaval in northeastern Syria caused by Turkey’s invasion, and the division of the Syrian plunder among Turkey, the Assad regime, and Russia, presents Iran with new avenues for building up attack capabilities and further destabilizing the region.

Israel’s New Existential Challenge

The creation of an Iranian military/terrorist axis along Israel’s northern and southern borders, comprising Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, lays the groundwork for the long-term multi-frontal attrition of the Jewish state.

Active Protection Systems in Asymmetric Conflict

A massive concentration of forces is a disadvantage, not an advantage, in the modern era of asymmetric conflict. Active Protection Systems (APS), by contrast, provide small fighting units with protection and enable them to locate hostiles and discriminate them from the surrounding population. They thus reduce the army’s exposure while increasing its effectiveness.

Annexing Parts of the West Bank Area C: An Israeli National Interest

The former commanders who are demanding a referendum on the possible annexation of parts of the West Bank’s Area C misunderstand the threats confronting Israel. One need only consider the latest round of fighting in Gaza to understand what the threat to the cities of the coastal plain would look like if Israel were to give up control of the mountainous terrain dominating the country’s economic-social-industrial heartland.

The Diplomacy of Violence in Gaza

Ever since the unilateral disengagement from Gaza in the summer of 2005, Israel has engaged in “bargaining by the threat of violence” with Hamas. Within that framework, the IDF has conducted three large-scale operations in Gaza in addition to smaller rounds of hostilities. With no possibility in the offing of either serious political negotiations or a decisive war, the only alternative is to continue the “diplomacy of violence.”

The West Bank’s Area C: Israel’s Eastern Line of Defense

This study explores the strategic-military implications of the establishment of a Palestinian state along the pre-June 1967 lines. Its central thesis is that the creation of such a state, on the heels of the IDF’s total withdrawal from the West Bank, will not only deprive Israel of defensible borders but will almost certainly lead to the advent of a terrorist entity like the one created in the Gaza Strip - at a stone’s throw from the Israeli hinterland.

Israel’s Information Campaigns: An Alternative to Kinetic Strikes

Yaakov Lappin
April 17, 2019
Paper No. 1144

In recent months, the Israeli defense establishment has made increasing use of “information campaigns,” or exposure through the media of enemy activity that has been detected by Israeli intelligence. This modus operandi has developed into an alternative to kinetic strikes.

Can Israel Defeat Hamas Without Toppling It?

So far, Israel's objectives in armed conflicts with Hamas have been limited so as to avoid the need to reoccupy Gaza or to send it down the “Somalia model” path of chaos. But there might be a third option.