As US-China Competition Unfolds, Russia Watches Closely

Emil Avdaliani
June 26, 2020
Paper No. 1616

Russia’s position is crucial in the unfolding US-China competition. There are two likely scenarios. In one, Russia is able to maneuver between the powers and score geopolitical goals in its neighborhood and in the Middle East. In the other, Russia is cast by the West as an outright enemy, leaving little room for compromise and allowing the country to fall further under Chinese influence.

The Chinese View of Western-Russia Competition

Emil Avdaliani
May 14, 2020
Paper No. 1565

The ongoing competition between Russia and the West is likely to continue unabated for years to come. Beijing will endeavor to widen that gulf by supporting Moscow in its efforts to implement China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East and Eurasia.

Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the USA: Slippery Oil Triangle

Jonathan Ariel
May 6, 2020
Paper No. 1552

Oil relationships are as unstable and volatile as romantic ones. Following a deadlocked OPEC summit in February, Moscow and Riyadh announced they would ramp up production, sending already low prices tumbling. Since both countries’ budgets are almost entirely dependent on energy exports, this suggests they have decided geopolitical interests trump purely economic ones.

Putin’s Religious Soft Power Hits Jerusalem

Dr. Shay Attias
May 5, 2020
Paper No. 1550

The recent “backpacker deal,” the Crimean Peninsula annexation, and Russia’s Sochi Olympic Games are all examples of Vladimir Putin's global “smart power” strategy, which combines soft and hard power. In winning Russian sovereignty over the Jerusalem complex containing the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, he scored a significant soft power win.

Putin’s Coronavirus Crisis Is Not “Under Control”

The coronavirus has caused a three-dimensional crisis in Russia: a health crisis, an economic crisis, and a personal crisis for Putin. The false low figures Moscow has released about domestic virus cases and deaths are an attempt to disguise a devastating situation.

Coronavirus Is Hitting Russia on More than the Economy

The coronavirus pandemic is causing Russia fundamental problems and putting its entire political system under intense scrutiny. As the death rate rises across its far-flung territories, troubles between Moscow and the regions are increasing. The crisis is prompting questions about the recent set of proposed constitutional changes, and the economy is likely to experience deep shocks—particularly when the effects of the pandemic are combined with those of the recent oil price war with Saudi Arabia.

Coming Home to Roost: War Threatens to Spill Beyond Syria’s Borders

As tens of thousands more refugees are shunted by Turkey toward Europe and a new phase of the brutal Syrian war unfolds, Russia, Turkey, the EU, and the international community are being handed the bill for a flawed short-term approach to the nine-year conflict that lacked empathy for the millions of victims and was likely to magnify rather than resolve problems.

Turkey and Russia: Not Friends After All

Burak Bekdil
March 26, 2020
Paper No. 1505

After a three-and-a-half-year marriage of convenience, Turkey and Russia have come to realize that they are fighting on opposite sides of two proxy wars: one in Syria and the other in Libya. This comes after Russia sold Turkey $2.5 billion worth of S-400 air defense systems, won a multibillion-dollar nuclear plant contract, signed up for a lucrative natural gas pipeline, and widened the gap between NATO and its part-time member Turkey.

Russia’s Shift from “Greater Europe” to “Greater Asia”

Though analysts tend to portray Russia’s foreign policy as truly global (that is, independent of Europe, the US, and China), the country is plainly tilting toward Asia. The Russian political elite does its best to hide this development, but the country is accumulating more interests and freedom to act in Asia than in Europe or anywhere else.

Post-Soleimani, Russia’s Role Will Grow in Iran’s Geopolitical Thinking

US-Iran relations reached a nadir following the killing by US drone strike of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. As Iran’s isolation grows, its link to Russia is likely to strengthen. Moscow can use Iran’s geopolitical weakness to its own economic advantage by making large sales of Russian military hardware to the Islamic Republic and encouraging deeper cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and Tehran. At the same time, Russia will use the death of Soleimani to constrain Iranian troop activities on the Syrian battlefield and will generally limit Damascus’s dependence on Iran.