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Russia

Kabul in 1979, Minsk in 2020?

Alexander Lukashenko’s days as the autocratic president of Belarus are clearly numbered, and Russia will likely play a key role in his exit. What is less clear is just how that exit will come about and what role the neighbor to the East will play. Recent history provides us with a few possible scenarios.

Russia’s Troubles with Its “String of Pearls”

For geopolitical reasons, Russia has been building a chain of separatist states near its borders since the 1990s. However, as Russia’s economy worsens, competition with the West is increasing. As the “breakaways” grow ever more predatory, Moscow is having a difficult time managing geographically diverse separatist regions all at the same time.

Is Yemen the Next Frontier for the Turkey-Russia Conflict?

Turkey and Russia are embroiled in separate proxy conflicts on multiple fronts in Syria and Libya, but could be on a collision course in the complex political landscape of Yemen. This can be avoided if Turkey does not try for an aggressive Islamist takeover and respects Russia’s desire to share gas profits, exercise political influence with whatever factions end up dominating the sphere, and retain access to strategic waterways.

As US-China Competition Unfolds, Russia Watches Closely

Russia’s position is crucial in the unfolding US-China competition. There are two likely scenarios. In one, Russia is able to maneuver between the powers and score geopolitical goals in its neighborhood and in the Middle East. In the other, Russia is cast by the West as an outright enemy, leaving little room for compromise and allowing the country to fall further under Chinese influence.

Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the USA: Slippery Oil Triangle

Oil relationships are as unstable and volatile as romantic ones. Following a deadlocked OPEC summit in February, Moscow and Riyadh announced they would ramp up production, sending already low prices tumbling. Since both countries’ budgets are almost entirely dependent on energy exports, this suggests they have decided geopolitical interests trump purely economic ones.

Putin’s Religious Soft Power Hits Jerusalem

The recent “backpacker deal,” the Crimean Peninsula annexation, and Russia’s Sochi Olympic Games are all examples of Vladimir Putin's global “smart power” strategy, which combines soft and hard power. In winning Russian sovereignty over the Jerusalem complex containing the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, he scored a significant soft power win.

Coronavirus Is Hitting Russia on More than the Economy

The coronavirus pandemic is causing Russia fundamental problems and putting its entire political system under intense scrutiny. As the death rate rises across its far-flung territories, troubles between Moscow and the regions are increasing. The crisis is prompting questions about the recent set of proposed constitutional changes, and the economy is likely to experience deep shocks—particularly when the effects of the pandemic are combined with those of the recent oil price war with Saudi Arabia.

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