In June 2024, the materials published by the BESA Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program covered the recent developments in the South Caucasus, as well as the projections of the regional dynamics on the geopolitical stances of Israel and France.
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On June 27th, 2024, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University organized a seminar titled “Vectors and Cleavages of Post-Soviet Conflict Dynamics”. The seminar has symbolically marked the first year of the work of the Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program (PSCRP) established at BESA in summer of 2023.
- Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Bartal
- Paper No. 2288
The Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023 was quickly characterized by Hamas as fulfillment of a prophecy about the destruction of Israel. Hamas cast the invasion as a Palestinian version of the Battle of Badr, a battle in which a small force of Muslim believers under the command of the Prophet Muhammad succeeded in defeating a large force of Quraysh and Makkah who had opposed his prophecy. The battles of October 7 were labeled a divine victory by believers over the enemies of Allah, and many verses in this spirit were broadcast. However, more recent articles published on the Hamas website suggest that its view has undergone a transformation. Hamas has apparently shifted from extolling its “divine victory” on October 7 to admitting that it has been defeated in battle again and again. The great suffering Hamas has inflicted on the Gaza Strip has put it in the position where it must now explain to the Palestinian public why it started the war in the first place, why it did not expect a massive military response from Israel to its atrocities and attempt at genocide, and why the suffering of the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip is not in vain.
- Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai
- Paper No. 2287
In this article I will present five alternatives for the future of Gaza. Israel’s long-term strategy to ensure its continued existence entails the accomplishment of these goals: destruction of Hamas's military capabilities, abolition of Hamas control in Gaza, and the preservation of good relations with the United States. Less core strategic considerations are the return of the abductees, the crisis on the northern front, relations within the region, and Israel’s legitimacy. The alternatives for Gaza’s future are: the Hamas option, which is the most problematic; the revitalized Palestinian Authority option; the military-civilian option, which seems the most balanced; the chaos option; and the sovereignty option, which is also very problematic. It is essential to conduct a far-reaching discussion on all these alternatives and to avoid attachment to any one of them.
The Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program at the BESA Center is pleased to invite you to a seminar:
Vectors and Cleavages of the Post-Soviet Conflict Dynamics
Thursday 27.6.2024, 2:00 pm - 5:00 pm BESA Seminar Room, Building 203, Room 131ת Bar Ilan University
- Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal
- Paper No. 2280
Executive Summary: Israel's wars, according to Israel's traditional defense strategy, are aimed at thwarting and removing military threats, not at politically shaping the region. Hence our familiar focus on the military dimension. But the goal of the war in Gaza is more ambitious: the destruction of the Hamas regime. Accordingly, its realization depends on additional dimensions. A slow reconstruction of parts of Gaza based on military achievements can regain the initiative, transfer the pressure back to Hamas, and serve as a lever for a hostage deal. This is also a one-time opportunity for Israel to physically shape the ruined Strip according to its interests. Once we finally get out of the strategic corner we've fallen into, we would be wise to return to the more modest Israeli approach to war. We will focus on the effective removal of threats and leave the business of political engineering to the powers.
- Prof. Efrat Aviv
- Paper No. 2276
The local elections in Turkey at the end of March 2024 had some surprising results. Economic factors were a decisive factor in the relatively low numbers for the ruling AK Party. Pensioners, a growing demographic sector in Turkey, were frequently mentioned during the AK Party’s election campaign but were neglected in practice, which was the main reason for the AK Party's failure. In both the near and distant term, it will now be impossible to ignore the rights of pensioners in Turkey.
In May 2024, the PSCR program’s research focused, as always, on the political dynamics in various post-Soviet regions, and the external dimensions of post-Soviet foreign politics.
An analysis of the anti-Israeli elements in Putin’s new ideology of “anti-colonialism” shows that as this ideology takes hold, Russia may find itself in a situation of systematic ideologically motivated confrontation with Israel, similar to what took place during the Soviet era.
While Russia may have gained politically from the war – because of the close US-Israeli relationship—its influence in the conflict was quite limited and the deterioration of Russian-Israeli relations may yet change the Israeli position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.