Until the end of the seventies, Israel's policy on hostages, prisoners and missing persons was based on national considerations. The Entebbe Doctrine permitted no negotiations with terrorist organizations that involved comprehensive deals for the mass release of prisoners as doing so would amount to a surrender to terror. Israeli hostages would be released either through operational means, local negotiations, or prisoner exchanges after fighting was concluded. But over the past four decades, ever since the Jibril Agreement of 1985, there has been a change in Israel's policy on this matter to involve wholesale prisoner releases. This has caused Israel profound strategic damage. Negotiating with Hamas for the release of the hostages in Gaza through comprehensive, all-inclusive deals mediated by Qatar (“everyone for everyone”) would undermine Israel's strategy in the Swords of Iron war. It's time to make a fundamental change in Israel's policy on this issue and readopt the Entebbe Doctrine, which can save the lives of the current hostages and prevent the taking of more in the future.

Infiltrations of armed militants for the purpose of killing and looting are nothing new in the troubled history of the Gaza Strip. The attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, which led to the deaths of approximately 1,500 people, most of whom were Israeli citizens, is just one link in the chain of suffering between Israel and the Gaza Strip. Only when a determined governing authority held full control over the Strip, as  Egypt did from 1956 to 1967 and Israel did from 1967 to 1993, could the development of the western Negev and southern Israel thrive. Israel has spent 17 years trying to disengage from Gaza without success, and there has been round after round of fighting. Despite its economic dependence on Israel, Gaza has remained a significant security problem that only worsened over time. The Swords of Iron War could be an opportunity to change the reality in the Gaza Strip, but it might require the return of Israeli military governance until, with the help of regional and local actors and international support, a solution is found - a solution that does not merely establish temporary quiet but that ensures peace and stability in the Gaza region for all.

Over six and a half years ago, two researchers from the BESA Center, Dr. Eado Hecht and Prof. Eitan Shamir, warned of a development that could lead to a scenario similar to the one that occurred on October 7 in the Gaza envelope. They and others made similar warnings about Hezbollah, but few pointed to the possibility of such a scenario unfolding in the south. The BESA researchers not only outlined a scenario markedly similar to what actually happened in the south on 7th October 2023 but made practical suggestions regarding the force-structure required by the IDF to provide an effective response to such a scenario. They criticized the significant reduction in ground forces, especially in the armored and artillery units. The authors analyzed the various non-state military organizations facing Israel, including Hamas, and revealed the goal of their force build-up: creating the capacity to launch incursions with significant forces to occupy Israeli settlements close to the border. The researchers argued that in view of this enemy strategy, the IDF’s continued reduction and neglect of major ground forces, coupled with reliance on precision weaponry and airpower, constituted a flawed strategy.