Israel’s Nuclear and Conventional Deterrence

In thinking about deterrence-based national security, Israel must regard the country's nuclear and conventional threats as seamless and interwoven. This is because a recognizably capable and coherent conventional deterrent could prevent any too-sudden escalations to nuclear dimensions of conflict, and because a similarly capable and coherent nuclear deterrent could best ensure that adversaries remain suitably reluctant to menace Israel's existence. Moreover, because both interrelated forms of Israeli deterrence always require a presumption of enemy rationality – and because these enemies might not always conform to this reassuring presumption – Israel will have to develop a far more conspicuous doctrine for dealing with prospectively non-rational adversaries. While any such doctrine, inter alia, must include a broad variety of plausible preemption choices, there are conceivable circumstances wherein Israel's pertinent enemies would be judged irrational or potentially irrational, and where identifiable cost-effective preemption options no longer exist. At that eleventh-hour point of crisis, Israel's leaders would need to have ready certain still-promising security options other than deterrence (conventional or nuclear) or preemption.

Erdoğan vs. the Free Press

The takeover of Turkey’s largest independent media group by an Erdoğan crony was not unexpected given the troubles and systematic state harassment suffered by the Dogan Media Company over the past decade. After the takeover, the opposition media will be limited to one large-circulation daily, a couple of small, left-wing newspapers, and a number of small digital platforms, with the third group now facing new pressure from the government.

New Military Intelligence Chief Arrives at Critical Juncture

A new Military Intelligence chief has taken up his position just as Israel’s low-profile campaign to disrupt the force build-up process of its enemies is reaching a critical juncture. An escalation by Iran will jeopardize its Syrian and Lebanese projects.

Natural Gas: An Underrated Driver of Saudi Hostility Towards Iran and Qatar

Debilitating hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran is about lots of things, not least who will have the upper hand in a swath of land stretching from Central Asia to the Atlantic coast of Africa. While attention is focused on ensuring that continued containment of Iran ensures that Saudi Arabia has a leg up, geopolitics is but one side of the equation. Natural gas is the other.

International Law and WMD Attacks on Israel

In the years ahead, Israel could face the growing prospect of WMD terrorism – i.e., attacks involving chemical, biological, or even nuclear weapons. In this connection, it is vital that Israeli officials do their utmost to prevent perfidious enemy manipulations of humanitarian international law. This is especially urgent with regard to enemy use of "human shields," an illegal form of military deception that could be used to deter Israeli retaliation. Perfidy can originate with both state and sub-state foes, and could conceivably involve primitive nuclear devices such as "dirty bombs" (weapons that do not involve genuine chain reactions, but instead attach conventional explosives to fissile materials).

Tehran’s Dangerous Yemen Game

An integral part of its sustained drive for regional hegemony, Tehran’s backing of the Houthis in Yemen, like its support for Syria’s Assad regime, is to build naval bases, gain control of strategic international waterways, terrorize Sunni populations, and turn local Shiite forces into its own private paramilitary groups to be used in special operations and terrorist attacks around the world. The Houthis are following Iran's Hezbollah model and have gained the world's sympathy through propaganda even as they engage in ruthless attacks on civilians both at home and in Saudi Arabia.

The Islamization of Turkey

Rauf Baker
April 22, 2018
Paper No. 805

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is focusing his Islamization policy on the education system in his bid to raise a "pious generation". "Jihad" has become a frequent reference in the Turkish regime's rhetoric, while Syrians in the country and in areas controlled by Turkish troops in northern Syria are eating off the same plate. The international community should act to stop a "Turkish bin Laden" in the making and al-Qaeda-like authoritarian rule.

Minimal Strike on Assad Shows Extent of Russian Deterrence

While the purpose of the US strikes was to target Syria’s chemical-weapons capabilities, the relatively modest scale of the strikes are an indication of Russia’s ability to cause Western powers to limit their actions.

Transfer UNRWA’s Responsibilities to Whom?

International political changes and genuine refugee crises have prompted a renewed examination of UNRWA, the internationally funded mechanism for the Palestinians. The problem of transferring UNRWA’s health, welfare, and education responsibilities to other organizations is not easily resolved. Despite obvious problems (primarily the inevitable corruption), absorbing UNRWA into the PA is the least bad alternative, as it offers a path for both capacity-building and real oversight.

Area C is Strategically Vital for Israel

The proposed transfer of significant parts of Area C to the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA) will be detrimental to Israel's national interest, if only because these territories are almost completely devoid of any Palestinian population. As such, they afford not only a strong security grip but the possibility of extensive Jewish settlement without threatening Israel’s Jewish and democratic character. Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s meticulous and detailed demarcation of Area C in the Oslo Accords underscores the great importance he accorded to Israel's continued retention of this territory.

Perspectives Papers