On Wars and Changing Threats

Israeli society must recognize the intensity of the new threats that surround it and critically assess the conventional wisdom that the era of big threats has passed and Israel need no longer be a “mobilized nation.”

IAEA Inspection Reports Mostly Bad News

Oded Brosh
July 8, 2021
Paper No. 2091

The latest IAEA inspection reports on Iran show a continued escalation in a wide array of nuclear activities prohibited by the JCPOA, including accumulation of enriched uranium in quantities that exceed the limits set in the agreement as well as increasing levels of enrichment. Moreover, the reports complain that the Iranian regime is constantly hindering the Agency’s verification measures, leading to an ever more significant decline in its ability to ascertain and report on the details of Iran’s nuclear activities. The IAEA’s access, already limited, was further curtailed on June 24, when temporary agreements reached by the Agency with Iran expired. In the background is the victory of Ebrahim Raisi in the Iranian presidential election and the ascendance of a more extremist government than that of Rouhani.

China and Russia: A New Vision for Central Asia

Emil Avdaliani
July 7, 2021
Paper No. 2090

The Kremlin's fixation on competing with the West might cost Russia dearly, as its clout in Central Asia is under strain from a rising China. Moscow will try to mitigate the tilting balance of power by applying methods of the post-liberal world order to the region. China and Russia might reach a condominium in which issues of economy and security are subdivided between them.

Saudi Arabia Steps Up Effort to Replace UAE and Qatar as Go-To Regional Hub

Saudi Arabia has stepped up efforts to outflank the UAE and Qatar as the Gulf’s commercial, cultural, and/or geostrategic hub.

The Evyatar Outpost: Israel’s New Pioneers

The establishment of the Evyatar outpost is a direct continuation of the activist pioneering ethos that the Yishuv leadership developed during the Arab riots of 1936-39, and that has long been lost to considerable parts of the Israeli political establishment.

Putin, Ukraine, and Russian Red Lines

Many are still wondering whether Vladimir Putin’s massive troop deployment in conflict zones in the Donbas and the Crimean Peninsula in the spring of 2021 was preparation for eventual war and territorial gain or simply a public relations exercise meant to intimidate Ukraine and the West. The answer has to do with Putin’s main red line.

How Turkey Bypasses Western Arms Embargoes

Burak Bekdil
July 2, 2021
Paper No. 2086

US and Canadian embargoes are threatening Turkey’s attack helicopter and drone sales to third-party countries. Ankara has come up with a corporate legal solution to this problem, but it might fail to overcome the political impetus behind the export restrictions.

Russia, Belarus, and the Empire Debate

Emil Avdaliani
July 1, 2021
Paper No. 2085

Belarus is growing increasingly isolated and is pushing itself more and more into Russia's embrace. Moscow is taking the opportunity to cement Belarus as a buffer state against Western geopolitical influence. But contrary to the established analysis, unless there is a real chance of a pro-Western government being installed in Minsk, Russia is unlikely to push for any radical scenarios, including full integration.

The New York Times Relies on Amnesty and HRW Sources in Misleading Gaza Video

The New York Times continues to present anti-Israel propaganda as news. In the latest example, the paper published a 15-minute video alleging Israeli war crimes during the May conflict in Gaza. The sources called upon by the Times to back up these claims are exclusively members of NGOs known for their hostility to Israel. Not a single genuine expert on either the specifics of the incident in question or international law was used as a source in the Times’s highly misleading and biased report.

The Legacy of Ambassador Arye Mekel

Ambassador Arye Mekel played a vital role as a catalyst for the improvement of Greek-Israeli relations from 2010 until 2014. At a time when the two countries still did not know each other very well, he was instrumental in facilitating dialogue and brought the relationship to unprecedented heights. He believed passionately in this ambitious goal and patiently worked toward its realization. His contribution to Greek-Israeli friendship, which continues to deepen, will not be forgotten.

Perspectives Papers