The Assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: What Are the Iranian Regime’s Options?

This past Friday, the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was assassinated in a well-organized raid 70 km outside the city of Tehran. A commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Fakhrizadeh headed the important Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research of the Ministry of Defense, which conducted nuclear weapons research. His killing reflects a major breach in Iranian counterintelligence and could indicate that the regime’s intelligence and security apparatuses have been compromised. Iran will have to respond to Fakhrizadeh´s assassination, but will likely do so in a manner that avoids full-scale war.

Conflict in Ethiopia Extends Greater Middle East’s Arc of Crisis

Ethiopia, an African darling of the international community, is sliding toward civil war as the coronavirus pandemic hardens ethnic fault lines. The consequences of prolonged hostilities could echo across East Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.

The Suspension of Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn: A “Conflict in Progress”

The extremely negative report of the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) on antisemitism in the UK Labour Party was published on October 29. The party’s former chairman, Jeremy Corbyn, criticized it, saying allegations of antisemitism had been dramatically overstated for political reasons. He was thereupon suspended as a party member. Since then he has been reinstated, but party chairman Sir Keir Starmer has refused to take him back in the Labour parliamentary faction. Corbyn thus continues to sit in the House of Commons as an independent MP.

A New Lebanese Civil War?

Despite their desire to evict sectarianism from their country’s corrupt government, Lebanese civilians are likely to see increased tensions across religious lines. Iran will continue to back Hezbollah despite its regional weakening, while Turkey and Qatar will play a bigger counterbalancing role by increasing their influence on the Sunni community.

Israel and Lebanon to Open Negotiations

The announcement of the opening of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on the disputed gas reservoirs near the territorial waters of the two countries surprised many, though this will not be the first time talks have taken place between the two.

Turkey: Land of Heimatlos

Gloomy facts and figures about a country are one thing, but a sense among large numbers of citizens that they do not belong to their homeland is a different story. Recent research has found that 38% of Turks do not feel they belong in their own country.

The Qatar World Cup: Dreaming of Bridging the Gulf Rift

With the 2022 World Cup in Qatar only two years away and a resolution of the three-year-old Gulf rift nowhere in sight, government officials, soccer governance executives, and pundits are playing with the notion that the tournament could serve as an icebreaker in the dispute between Qatar and its detractors, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.

Algeria’s Referendum: Stirrings of Democracy and the Decline of Islamism

The events surrounding the recent constitutional referendum in Algeria reflect broader trends in the region and the prospect that Algeria might eventually join the UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan in normalizing relations with Israel.

Did Putin “Vote” for Biden?

After four years of supporting Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin tried to curry favor with Joe Biden days before the US presidential election. He did this despite Biden’s sharp anti-Russian rhetoric and amidst the Democrats’ four-year-long accusation that Trump had colluded with Russia (with Biden himself calling Trump “Putin’s puppy”). Putin will never allow personal preference of one leader over another to override Russian national interests, and it is those interests that will dictate his diplomatic approach to President Biden.

The Al-Masri Assassination: Another Iranian Intelligence Failure

On August 7, 2020, the number 2 figure in al-Qaeda, Abdullah Ahmad Abdullah (known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri), was gunned down in Tehran. Al-Masri’s very presence in Iran exhibited the close relationship Tehran has with the Sunni terrorist organization, and his slaying shows the weakness of Iranian counterintelligence. The regime’s frustration at this intelligence failure will likely be expressed through acts of violence. It will probably reform its counterintelligence community and may ask for assistance in this endeavor from both Russia and China.

Perspectives Papers