Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

View Archive

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently issued a stern warning to the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague to stop the chief prosecutor from proceeding with an intended investigation into war crimes allegedly committed by Israel. Pompeo’s warning concerned Israel, but as the US is itself in danger of an ICC investigation into supposed war crimes in Afghanistan, it was meant to send a broader message. Any ICC investigation of Israel and the US would be dangerous, and the allies must use all diplomatic and legal tools at their disposal to fight and delegitimize the prosecutor and the Court.     
With the May 2000 abandonment of the South Lebanon Army, Israel signaled to its regional allies that it is not a reliable mainstay. This influenced the lukewarm response of the Golan Heights Druze to the Israeli offer of citizenship, as well as Israeli decision-making during the Syrian civil war regarding cooperation with Syrian militias in the villages near the Golan border. 
America and Israel face numerous shared challenges, including terrorism, weapons and nuclear proliferation, cyber warfare, and the spread of radical Islamist ideology. America can consistently depend on the beacon of stability represented by democratic Israel in the turbulent Middle East, where the two countries share the same national and homeland security concerns: the megalomaniacal vision of Iran’s ayatollahs, the threat of Sunni and Shiite Islamic terrorism, and the critical security requirements of vulnerable pro-US Arab regimes. Israel also invests heavily in the American economy and is one of the top 20 suppliers of direct investment in the US.
Israel’s May 2000 rushed evacuation of its security zone in south Lebanon and the desertion of its longstanding local allies there tarnished the Jewish State’s deterrent posture and helped spark a string of large-scale armed confrontations with Hezbollah (2006), the PLO (the so-called “al-Aqsa Intifada”), and Hamas (2008/9, 2012, 2014). The withdrawal transformed south Lebanon into an ineradicable terror entity that can harass northern Israel at will and expedited Hezbollah’s evolvement into a formidable military power armed with 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching anywhere in Israel. It also dented the IDF’s fighting ethos and operational competence, as illustrated by its lukewarm performance during the Second Lebanon War (2006) and Operation Protective Edge (2014).
Geopolitical trends of the last two decades show that pivotal states in Eurasia are working to recreate their zones of influence. In so doing, they are challenging the US, which implies a corresponding challenge to the existing world order. Though Washington will be able to limit some powers’ ambitions, it has few tools with which to hamper the ambitions of Russia, China, and Iran.
Muslims around the world are in the middle of celebrating the month-long holiday of Ramadan. This year, several of the television series produced to be aired during the holy month contain surprisingly positive depictions of Jews and Israel, much to the consternation of the Palestinians.
The American turn toward Jacksonian isolationism could ultimately put it in the difficult position of having to exercise hard power to fill the very gap it created. As rogue elements take the opportunity left by the American retreat to try to impose their maximalist goals on the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, American foreign policy finds itself at a historic crossroads with little time left in which to act.

Accessibility Toolbar