New Chapters in Iran’s Proxy Strategy to Fight the West

Ariel Kogan
May 18, 2023
Paper No. 2197

With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the Islamic Republic of Iran found a new avenue through which to carry on its anti-Western and anti-Israeli missions. Tehran has pledged to support its Russian ally in Ukraine and is sending weapons and other supplies to the Russian war effort. It is similarly assisting Armenia, its ally in the Caucasus, in its ongoing conflict with Israel- and-Turkey-backed Azerbaijan.

The “Strategic Warning” Is Misguided

Recent papers by experts and think tanks claim that multiple negative trends occurring simultaneously in Israel’s strategic environment have coalesced into a major threat. There is in fact no clear connection between the trends they identify. The “strategic warning” is unnecessary and could even cause harm, as it distracts from continued critical engagement with the internal issues that are dividing Israeli society, makes it difficult to discuss the main strategic issues facing Israel, and causes an immediate focus on preparedness rather than orderly force build-up.

The Significance of the Upcoming Turkish Elections

The future of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political career will be decided on May 14, when his People’s Alliance will compete with the Nation’s Alliance in a presidential and parliamentary election round. Opposition parties hope to give a democratic and pro-Western boost to Turkey. The country is polarized and thus might be ready to make major changes, especially after 20 years of a single administration. Still, Mediterranean geopolitics are unlikely to be significantly affected regardless of the outcome. This is also true of Israeli-Turkish relations.

The Elections in Turkey 2023 – The Beginning of the Post-Erdoğan Era?

Prof. Efrat Aviv
May 4, 2023
Paper No. 2194

Turkey is approaching the centenary of its founding, a significant date not only for its past but also for its future. With the May 14 election approaching, polls and commentators are beginning to discuss the post-Erdoğan era. The upcoming elections are critical and may bring about a historic change in Turkish politics. As things currently stand, no electoral outcome is likely to result in a return to the “golden age” of relations between Israel and Turkey.

The Asian Nuclear Discourse and Its Wider Implications

Public discourse in South Korea and Japan has begun to include discussion of the development of nuclear capabilities. This policy change in the regional nuclear discourse, together with attempts by North Korea and Russia to legitimize the use of tactical nuclear weapons, should raise concerns not just in Asia but in the Middle East as well.

How a Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation Aids Israel

Rafael Castro
April 23, 2023
Paper No. 2192

The recent reconciliation agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia dismayed many Israeli policymakers, analysts, and journalists. The agreement suggests that Saudi Arabia is steering away from its course of rapprochement with Israel and cuddling up to the ayatollahs, thereby eroding Israel’s geostrategic position in the Middle East. But the widespread assessment of this development as entirely bad for Israel is short-sighted.

Israel’s Main Military Challenges

Dr. Ehud Eilam
April 3, 2023
Paper No. 2191

The main challenges currently facing the IDF are preparations to strike Iran’s nuclear sites and confrontation of pro–Iranian non-state actors (NSAs), mainly Hezbollah and Hamas. The IDF also has to deal with other important security matters, including ongoing unrest in the West Bank and the military campaign against Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.

Will Hamas and Hezbollah Try Again to Tear the Israeli Spiderweb?

From their earliest days, Hezbollah and Hamas have seen immense value in closely monitoring Israel’s media. However, their reliance on open source information has proven a double-edged sword, as both groups have been misled into making poor strategic decisions. Either Hezbollah or Hamas is likely to identify the current crisis in Israel over the new government’s proposed reform of Israel’s judiciary as an opportunity to act against it. They might be surprised, however, by Israel’s response.

The Russo-Ukraine War: Possible Lessons for the IDF

The war in Ukraine is an example of modern high-intensity warfare. As such, it offers a number of lessons that can be learned about the capabilities, limitations, and requirements of armies conducting such warfare. New technology and methods have added capabilities, but have not rendered more traditional methods of warfare and technology obsolete. The IDF should learn to merge the new with the old by acquiring competence in new technology and tactics while maintaining technical and tactical competence in the veteran ”basics”.

Antisemitic Tropes in the Age of Post-Soviet War

The new round of Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict and the war in Ukraine both exhibit noticeable anti-Jewish aspects. However, their manifestations are not identical.

Perspectives Papers