Competing Islams in Central Asia

More than three decades after the Soviet collapse, analysts still ask whether Central Asia is “Islamizing.” The question assumes a single Islam and a single direction of travel, and it casts the region’s future as a contest between faith and secular statehood. The evidence points elsewhere. Central Asia is becoming more Islamic and more nationalist at the same time, and the real struggle is over which Islam will define its future.

The Kremlin Stays Silent: Russia’s Neighbors Are Building a Region Without It

On October 2, Ilham Aliyev told the congress of his ruling New Azerbaijan Party in Baku that the world has two superpowers and “there is no third.” Russia went unnamed. Six days later, the presidents of Central Asia and Azerbaijan met at the Turkmen Caspian resort of Avaza to take up trade, energy, transport and regional security. No Russian leader was among the attendees.

Minority Voters in Latvia’s 2026 Election

The 2026 Saeima election again offered Latvia’s Russophone electorate several distinct political choices. Sovereign Power/Young Latvians (SV/AJ) received 11.71% of the national vote, while Latvia First (LPV) secured 13.08%. For Stability! fell to 1.997%, and the renewed Harmony Centre got only 0.82%. LTV’s post-election analysis identified LPV and SV/AJ as the two main choices among Russian-speaking voters.

BESA Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Digest No. 36 (September 2026)

In September 2026, the PSCRP publications dealt mostly with the issues of geopolitical (re)alignments (in the Baltics and the South Caucasus) and the electoral process (in Russia and Kazakhstan).

Intra-Elite Outcomes of the Formation of a New Composition and Leadership of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Following the 2026 Elections

The formation of the State Duma of the ninth convocation following the elections of September 18–20, 2026, was accompanied not only by an updating of the personal composition of the chamber, but also by a redistribution of leadership positions within parliamentary factions, committees, and standing commissions. The assessments presented in analytical materials permit examination of this process through several interrelated aspects: the correlation of party forces, continuity of leadership, personnel movements, changes in the organizational structure of committees, and mechanisms for coordinating key appointments.

Monthly Monitoring of Analytical Publications on Post-Soviet Conflicts

August is traditionally considered a month when academic activity grinds to a halt—a trend that applies particularly to publishing. It is precisely in August that reputable journals make room for publications with unusual or even exotic themes, and authors find the time to work on such pieces. In this edition of our monitoring report, we have not strayed beyond the scope of conflicts in the post-Soviet space—and yet, we will be discussing epic heroes, artificial intelligence systems in public service, and medical education amidst political instability.

Iran Cut Off from Central Asia as Armenia Keeps an Open Gateway

Armenia therefore remains one of the few countries bordering Iran where Tehran's pressure and incentives still appear to retain some influence. Yerevan continues to expand its cooperation with the Islamic Republic, although it is unclear how long Armenia will be able to move against the broader regional trend. At some point, Yerevan's potential role in helping Iran circumvent sanctions may find its way onto the agenda in the White House and on Capitol Hill. If that happens, the question will ultimately be put directly to the Armenian authorities.

Fortifying the Frontier, Forgetting the Fundamentals: The Baltic States’ Puzzling Confidence

As tensions rise along NATO’s northeastern flank, the Baltic states face an uneasy contradiction: they have strengthened defenses, expanded allied deployments, and taken an increasingly assertive stance toward Moscow, yet significant gaps remain in infrastructure, air defense, and regional preparedness. With Russia testing the alliance through hybrid pressure and Washington sending mixed signals about the certainty of Article 5, the central question is no longer whether Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are preparing for confrontation, but whether the broader NATO system would respond quickly and decisively if that preparation were put to the test.

Elections to the New Kurultai in Kazakhstan: a changing society in an unstable world. Part 2.

The election of 23 August 2026 substantially reshaped Kazakhstan’s party system. Seven registered political parties contested all 145 seats in the newly established unicameral Kurultai, elected entirely through nationwide party lists. Five parties that represented all political spectrum crossed the 5 per cent electoral threshold: Adilet, Auyl, Respublica, Ak Zhol and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (OSDP). Two left parties (The People’s Party of Kazakhstan and the Baitaq Green Party) failed to enter the new legislature.

Elections to the New Kurultai in Kazakhstan: a changing society in an unstable world. Part 1.

Before Kassym-Jomart Tokayev came to power in 2019, Kazakhstan under Nursultan Nazarbayev combined a highly centralized political system with broadly neoliberal socioeconomic policies. In this respect, the Kazakhstani model displayed certain similarities with the previous developmental trajectories of several twentieth-century Asian states, including South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, where strong centralized authority coexisted with market-oriented economic modernization and deep integration into the global economy.