Iranian Fragmentation and the Post-Soviet Security Arc: Why Instability South of the Caucasus Is Already Reshaping Eurasian Security Dynamics

Security dynamics around Iran are shaped not only by material capabilities but by perception — both within the Islamic Republic and among neighbouring states. Narratives of internal crisis, ethnic vulnerability, and external encirclement increasingly influence strategic behaviour, generating real geopolitical consequences regardless of whether fragmentation ultimately occurs

Kyiv, Moscow and Three Scenarios For Iran

By the time of this writing, the Israeli and US military operation “Lion's Roar/Epic Fury” against the fundamentalist ayatollah regime in Iran had passed its eighth day. The strategic objective of this operation would be either the collapse of the Iranian regime or the infliction of such severe damage that it would be unable to restore its military and geopolitical capabilities for a long time. This strategy relies heavily on targeting the leadership.

Desperate Iran Provokes Azerbaijan: Is the IRGC Playing Its Own Game?

By inciting Azerbaijan, and consequently Turkey, the regime is initiating a riskier strategy. Yes, there is an economic component: a strike on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would further drive up oil prices, threaten Israel's energy security, and complicate the situation in Turkey. In addition, it creates a threat to the "Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity" project through the Zangezur Corridor. But this remains a secondary objective.

BESA Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Digest No. 29 (February 2026)

In February 2026, the research by the PSCR program was focused on the dynamics in the European part of the post-Soviet space (namely, Ukraine and Belarus), the South Caucasus, and Kazakhstan.

The South Caucasus at a Crossroads: American Engagement, Russian Retrenchment, and the Contest for Armenia’s Future

The February 2026 visit of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Yerevan and Baku — the first time a sitting American vice president has set foot in either country — marks the consolidation of a deliberate strategic reorientation. Washington is moving to establish a durable presence in the South Caucasus at a moment when Russia’s credibility as a regional security patron has collapsed and Iran’s leverage over transit routes is under pressure. For Armenia, long considered Moscow’s most reliable client in the region, the moment is one of unusual and consequential opportunity.

Monthly Monitoring of Analytical Publications on Post-Soviet Conflicts

January turned out to be a positive surprise: the speed of global transformations, the emergence of new configurations of interests, and new roles for seemingly traditional actors were fully on display across the post-Soviet space. And researchers felt it too, clearly revising their plans in favor of greater topicality and a demand for a strategic look from the standpoint of today and the near future.

How to Attend a Wedding Even Without an Invitation: Lukashenka’s Middle East Tour And Its Meaning for Israel (and Europe)

Lukashenka’s 2025/26 Middle East and North Africa tour illustrates enduring patterns of Belarusian foreign policy under his rule: the instrumentalization of diplomacy for international legitimacy, a highly personalized decision-making style centered on the ruling family, and proactive—often disruptive—efforts to secure relevance in global affairs. By situating the trip within Minsk’s broader diplomatic behavior, the analysis argues that Belarus should not be dismissed as a passive Russian proxy but understood as an autonomous spoiler capable of shaping regional dynamics. These features carry direct implications for Israel and Europe, particularly regarding Iran, sanctions evasion, and emerging security alignments.

European Embrace or Russian Straitjacket? Georgia’s Fateful Choice

The European Union’s 20th sanctions package marks an unprecedented escalation: for the first time, Brussels is targeting a port in a country that holds EU candidate status. Georgia’s Kulevi terminal, now implicated in facilitating Russian oil shipments, encapsulates a broader transformation underway in Tbilisi — one that is steadily converting a once-promising candidate for European integration into a facilitator of sanctions evasion for Moscow.

Ukraine Four Years On: An Israeli View

Forged in missile strikes, blackouts, and relentless air-raid sirens, Ukrainian society has adapted to life inside a war with no visible end — but not without deep psychological scars. Drawing on years of travel across Ukraine and engagement with refugees abroad, the report traces the rise of collective post-trauma, hardened attitudes toward Russia, and the growing sense of shared destiny with Israel as two democracies under siege. Beneath the surface resilience, however, lie widening internal divisions that may shape the country long after the guns fall silent.

Constitutional Reform in Kazakhstan: Why President Tokayev May No Longer Need the Russians

Kazakhstan is rewriting almost its entire Constitution—and the stakes go far beyond parliamentary mechanics. Behind the talk of a unicameral legislature and a vice presidency lies a carefully staged power transition, a recalibration of foreign dependence, and a quiet effort by Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to secure his post-presidential future without leaning on Moscow. This overhaul may redefine not only who governs Kazakhstan, but who ultimately guarantees that power.

PSCRP