Russia’s Air Defenses in Syria: More Politics than Punch

As a result of Moscow’s geopolitical considerations in Syria, chief among them the desire to avoid direct confrontation with the US and Israel, Russia’s air defenses in the region have assumed the tasks of political intimidation and reassurance. The Kremlin has issued warnings to both Israel and the US-led anti-ISIS coalition not to strike forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad, but Russia is unlikely to attempt to engage Israeli or coalition aerial assets unless its own forces are attacked or the assets approach Russian military installations too closely. Even then, intercepting them will be no easy task. While Russia’s modern air defenses in Syria are formidable, they are not “game-changers.”

Trump: No More Nation-Building Abroad

The US was in the nation-building business for years, in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya. But on August 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump stated unequivocally, “We are not nation-building again. We are killing terrorists.” As he constructs policies towards Islamist terrorists in Afghanistan, as well as towards the rogue, nuclear-focused regimes in Iran and North Korea, Trump is drawing on the lessons of past follies.

The Militia Option in Syria

The war in Syria has focused attention on the role of the militia forces. Although we may see the phenomenon as entirely negative, it also has positive aspects and reflects a genuine need that affects our lives as well.

Israel Faces a Growing Enemy Drone Threat

A quadcopter from the Gaza Strip landed in southern Israel earlier this month, and the IDF released a short message saying a unit had arrived to take it away for checks. This seemingly mundane incident is, in fact, indicative of a growing trend: the use of drones by Israel’s enemies.

The Syrian Kurds: Israel’s Forgotten Ally

In Syria, where chaos reigns and there are no moderates among the Sunni Arab opposition, the "enemy of my enemy" principle may apply – particularly in view of Assad's increasing dominance, the growing Iranian influence on Israel's borders, and Turkey's close ties with Hamas and warming relations with Tehran. It is therefore in Israel’s interest to act quickly to support the nascent Kurdish political region in Syria.

Shaping Eurasia’s Future: Unintended Consequences of Abrogating Iran’s Nuclear Deal

US President Donald J. Trump’s targeting of the two-year-old agreement curtailing Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons could not only spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, but also tilt European-Chinese competition for domination of Eurasia’s future energy infrastructure in China’s favor.

The IDF’s Gaza Wall Might Change Hamas Strategy

Time may be running out for one of Hamas's main weapons against Israel: its cross-border terror tunnels. As Hamas loses its potency against Israel in Gaza, it is turning its attention to fanning the flames of terrorism in the West Bank.

Ukraine Won’t Be Solved Any Time Soon

The conflict in East Ukraine has reached a frozen phase in which neither side is making many gains. Despite agreements, the conflict has not seen any meaningful breakthrough for more than three years. Geopolitical imperatives dictate that progress will be contingent upon either Russia or Ukraine (i.e., the West) conceding their interests. The Ukrainian problem is rooted in the geography of the country as well as in the consistent failure of Russia to leverage its involvement in Syria and other theaters for western concessions.

The Turkish Love-Hate Relationship with America

About the same proportion of Turks view the US (72%) and ISIS (73%) as a threat to their country. That’s weird. Erdoğan’s generation of Islamists were anti-American largely because of the Arab-Israeli dispute – although they feared Soviet communism more than American imperialism. Future generations of Turkish Islamists will hate America even more because they will have gone through long years of anti-American indoctrination by a beloved leader and his powerful propaganda machine.

President Xi’s Economy-Focused Leadership Model

On September 3, the heads of the BRICS states gathered for a summit. At the event, Chinese President Xi Jinping once again presented his way of thinking about his role in the global arena, a role he believes should focus on economic and trade issues. His approach downplays the issues of North Korea’s nuclear pursuit and the persistent global problem of terrorism, raising questions about his ability – or indeed hi desire – to take on a world leadership position.

Perspectives Papers