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Perspectives Papers

Perspectives Papers provide analysis from BESA Center research associates and other outside experts on the most important issues pertaining to Israel and the Middle East.

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Extreme instability and mistrust are heightening tensions in the Persian Gulf, especially between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. Americaโ€™s appetite for military engagement has waned after nearly two decades of war and the region lacks any form of collective security framework, leaving a considerable security vacuum. The Gulf statesโ€™ overtures to Israel are part of an effort to salvage Americaโ€™s security commitment to the area while shoring up a relationship that can mitigate Tehranโ€™s rising influence.
Iran has made impressive human development gains (even as it has suppressed human rights) in the last two decades under the ayatollahs. Just as expectations rose after the signing of the nuclear deal, those achievements tapered off and might even be in reverse. This could explain the social unrest roiling the country.
In a recent press conference, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett presented a goal for IDF activity in Syria: โ€œTo cause Iran to give up its attempt to entrench itself in Syria.โ€ Unlike the common tendency toward ambiguity in defining strategic objectives, Bennett dared pronounce a clear and measurable goal. But is the goal he presented achievable? And is it right to declare a strategic goal in that way?
A recent study recounts the purportedly unknown story of Palestinian Arab volunteers fighting the Nazis during WWII. Haaretz used this finding as an opportunity to mock PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pointed out that the Mufti of Jerusalem was a close ally of Hitler. Yet the Muftiโ€™s position as โ€œthe most important Arab Quislingโ€ is indisputable, while most of the studyโ€™s conclusions are dubious and inconsistent with historical facts.
The โ€œWhatsApp crisisโ€ in Lebanon revealed a crack in Iranโ€™s grand diplomatic strategy of using its proxies to push ideological soft power concurrently with hard power. Since 1979, Tehran has been trying to brand itself as the epicenter of the Islamic Revolution. That notion is being challengedโ€”not by Lebanese tanks and Iraqi bullets but by citizens armed with smartphones.
Shortly before the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoฤŸan to Washington, Turkey captured one of the wives of Abu Bakr Baghdadi, the slain leader of ISIS, in addition to several other family members. A week earlier, Turkish police detained 43 suspected ISIS terrorists allegedly preparing for a major attack on Turkish soil. This is all good news, but itโ€™s hardly the only news.ย ย ย ย 
Iranian president Hassan Rouhaniโ€™s recent announcement of the renewal of uranium enrichment at the Fordow fuel enrichment plant, as well as high-level Iranian gloating about recent progress in the development and operation of uranium enrichment centrifuges, may indicate that Tehran intends to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement and effect a breakout toward nuclear weapons production in 2020.ย 

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