Russia’s Troubles in 2020 Will Be Close to Home

Emil Avdaliani
March 4, 2020
Paper No. 1468

From a foreign policy standpoint, Russia should be fairly secure this year. In the Middle East, its main competitors will remain divided; while on a global scale, the self-absorption of the US and the EU should give Moscow some breathing room. Internally, however, Russia will face major challenges. As its economy continues to lag, domestic protests should increase across the country, as will the need to improve quality of life.

A Fragile Anti-US Alliance: Russia Accuses China of Technology Theft

The relationship between Russia and China is based on shared short-term strategic interests, but their differences lie just beneath the surface. Occasionally they erupt into the public eye, as occurred when Russia recently accused China of technology theft. The dynamic of the Russian-Chinese alliance is similar to that of Moscow’s alliances with Turkey and Iran, which also function by focusing on immediate interests and putting off serious differences as long as possible.

The Trump Vision vs. the Obama Vision on Israel

Donald Trump is a longtime admirer of Benjamin Netanyahu, in part because of the Israeli PM’s willingness to go toe-to-toe with Barack Obama. Obama’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was to support the Palestinians at Israel’s expense; Trump’s is the exact opposite.

The Problem of Egyptian Identity: A View from Within

Having toppled the Egyptian monarchy in the July 1952 coup d'état, the country’s new military rulers reshaped its identity. The Kingdom of Egypt became the Arab Republic of Egypt, moving farther toward pan-Arabism. This embrace of pan-Arab identity had far-reaching adverse consequences that stalled Egyptian progress while drastically affecting the way Egyptians see themselves, their neighbors, and the world.

European Appeasement Is Alive and Well

The word “appeasement” evokes dark memories of the Munich 1938 agreement, in which Britain and France made far-reaching concessions to the aggressive German Nazi state in order to avoid violent conflict. The betrayed victim was Czechoslovakia, which was not even invited to the conference at which its fate was to be decided. The outbreak of WWII in 1939 showed, of course, that the agreement was a gross error in judgment. Sadly, the West does not appear to have learned much from Neville Chamberlain’s misguided proclamation of “peace in our time”.

You Only Live Twice, Korean Style

The miraculous “revival” of Kim Kyong-hui, the long-thought-dead aunt of North Korean dictator Kim Jung-un, illustrates the confusing opacity of North Korean internal politics. Pyongyang is in a difficult position, as Kim has failed to capitalize on the summits with Trump and China is now preoccupied with mitigating the economic impact of the coronavirus.

The UN Against the Palestinian People

By targeting Israeli companies that employ mostly Palestinians, the UN Human Rights Council only helps to keep the latter in poverty—an end that serves the interests of the corrupt Palestinian Authority, which the UN automatically supports.

Hamas Fails to Curb Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Following recent rocket fire, Israel cannot tolerate “the rules of the game” that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is trying to impose on it, and the objective of reaching a long-term “understanding” with the main terrorist group, Hamas, is looking increasingly distant.

Sanders, AIPAC, and Israel

Unpacking Senator Bernie Sanders’ announcement that he will not attend the annual AIPAC Policy Conference because the organization provides a “platform” for “leaders who express bigotry and oppose basic Palestinian rights” reveals a gambit to split American Jews not only from AIPAC but from Israel. Accusing Israeli leaders and voters of being “right wing” and “racist” sets the stage for other Democratic candidates and American Jews to chance being labeled as the same.

The Inherent Threat of the Nuclear Launch Button

Though the Cold War ended long ago, there remains a danger that a nuclear launch might be initiated. This could occur as a result of human decision-making, artificial intelligence decision-making, or a combination of the two, whether by intent or in error. The only real way to remove the threat of a nuclear weapons launch is to cleanse the world of nuclear weapons, starting with the superpowers.

Perspectives Papers