The Gaza Oil Myth

The claim that Israel’s war in Gaza is driven by a desire to control Gaza's oil and gas resources has spread widely on social media and news platforms over the past year. However, Gaza has no known oil reserves and only one small, undeveloped offshore gas field, which Israel has never claimed. Surprisingly, this disinformation traces back to an official 2019 report by a UN agency (UNCTAD) that contained numerous false statements and unsubstantiated figures about non-existent energy reserves that were provided to it by known conspiracy theorists. Despite multiple analyses debunking every part of the report, the UN has not retracted it. This article examines the sources of the Gaza oil myth and points to deliberate attempts by the UNCTAD to fuel the false narrative of Israel seizing non-existent Palestinian oil.

Is the Aphrodite Gas Field
Politically Viable?

The companies that share ownership of the Aphrodite gas field announced on September 1, 2024 that they have submitted an updated development plan to the Cypriot government and are awaiting its approval. They estimate its cost to be around $4 billion. The announcement was preceded by months of fraught discussion between the companies, led by the US company Chevron, and the Cypriot Minister of Energy. If the development of the field can move forward successfully, it has the potential to redound to Israel’s benefit.

Japan, South Korea and the US Elections

The US presidential election in November 2024 will have a major impact on Asia. It will influence the US military presence as well as the balance of power in the region, and will affect the economies of the Asian countries. Joe Biden’s decision to leave the race and the elevation of Kamala Harris as the Democratic party candidate have forced Tokyo and Seoul to recalculate their policies towards Washington and the region.

Not an End State but a Long Game:
Israel’s Strategic Goals in the Iron Swords War

Many commentators claim that Israel lacks a clear plan for “the day after” the end of the Iron Swords War. They argue that because of this supposed lack, Israel will not be able to hold onto its military achievements during the war, which will remain merely tactical. But Israel is not playing a short-term game. Beyond its declared war goals, Israel is aiming to create a new security reality in the region by weakening Iran and its proxies. This broader goal stems from the understanding that to Israel, this war is existential, and the removal of significant threats from Israel’s borders is non-negotiable. Israel understands that it cannot impose plans or political proposals on its opponents, be they Palestinian or Lebanese – but by demonstrating its clear military superiority over them, Israel will improve its position in future negotiations. Finally, there is potential for new regional arrangements, including normalization with more Arab countries, if Israel succeeds in significantly weakening the Iranian threat. If Israel can show potential allies major military achievements against a common enemy, it can suggest a political plan that will improve its position in the region – but not before then. For Israel there is no end game, only a long game.

The New York Times Coverage of the Israel-Hamas War:
Random Errors or Endemic Malaise?

Serious errors, vague corrections and omissions of information have appeared in the pages of The New York Times throughout the Israel-Hamas war. The Times is considered a “newspaper of record” and a reliable source of information, and is read by leaders and elites around the world. The paper has nevertheless committed a series of repeated errors about the war, invariably at Israel’s expense, despite editorial promises to apply extra scrutiny. The errors and omissions created false context and lacked transparency. This report focuses on the Al-Ahli Hospital explosion, reports of civilian casualties, the Times’s continued employment of questionable journalists, and testimonials from inside the newsroom.

The Western Powers Are Marching to the Houthis’ Tune

It appears that the Western powers do not intend to exceed the parameters they have set for themselves in terms of military activity against Houthi rebel strongholds. Alarmingly, the West would prefer to be enslaved to the formula according to which only treatment of root causes – i.e, the cessation of the war in Gaza – will result in the cessation of the Houthis' violent disruption of security in international shipping lanes. This serves the interests of the Houthis’ state sponsor and terrorist enabler, Iran, and ensures the continuation of the Houthi threat to international shipping and to Israel.

BESA Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Digest No. 12 (September 2024)

In September 2024, the Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program focused on two broad regional clusters, namely Russia and the South Caucasus.

Limited Nuclear War
and Israel’s National Strategy

Once Israel has decided (as it should) to shed its traditional policy of deliberate nuclear ambiguity, it will have to consider how to selectively disclose its nuclear capabilities. Israel will need to find the best way of communicating a credible threat of limited nuclear war such that Iran and its proxies are deterred from continuing to escalate their aggressions.

Hezbollah Must Be Fought Like a State Army, Not Like a Terrorist Organization

The IDF’s recent spectacular successes in the north, while refreshing and very much worthy of praise, also revealed limitations. The pager operations were not carried out as part of a broad move; neither was the elimination of Aqil and his gang. Precision factories in Lebanon were not destroyed in the manner of the destruction of the Syrian facility in Masyaf. Years spent fighting the war on terror and the “war between the wars” have influenced Israeli strategic thinking. Hezbollah is a military force, but the war is still being conducted as a series of counter-terrorism operations.

The Uprisings in Bangladesh Are a Test for India

The large protests that have occurred in Bangladesh in recent weeks in the wake of economic decisions by the Bangladeshi government have implications for India's position in the region. The internal instability in Bangladesh brings new political and geopolitical challenges to India.

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